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MODEL PERFORMANCE

MODEL LOG.

Every read we publish, graded by Kalshi's own settlement market. Per-engine confirmed rate + paper-portfolio ROI on a 1-unit-per-read basis. Losses ship with the wins — there's no other honest way.

TRACKING SINCE
JUN 11
engine published
SPINE CALLS
96
24 confirmed · 4 engines
LEADING ENGINE
+66.7%
TEAM TOTAL · paper portfolio · 1 confirmed
BIGGEST GAP
51pp
DURBIN · 1+ HR · spine 59% vs market 8%

BY ENGINE

EVERY ENGINE.
ON A LEASH.

Each engine has a tracked confirmed-rate and paper-portfolio ROI (1 unit per pick, settled by Kalshi market_result). We retire what stops working. PAPER engines are in calibration; LIVE engines have cleared the graduation gate.

TEAM TOTAL

PAPER
CONFIRMED
1-0
CONFIRMED RATE
100%
ROI
+66.7%
1 settled·since 2026-07-02·small sample

Paper-only. Sample still building — too small for prod commitment but showing positive signal. Watching for live promotion.

PITCHER Ks

PAPER
CONFIRMED
3-8
CONFIRMED RATE
27%
ROI
+23.3%
11 settled·since 2026-07-02·small sample

MLB WINNER

LIVE
CONFIRMED
14-10
CONFIRMED RATE
58%
ROI
+19.4%
24 settled·since 2026-06-28

In calibration. Pricing model adjustments shipped 2026-06-16 target the negative ROI window. Sample size is small; track this for movement.

HR YES

CALIBRATING
CONFIRMED
6-54
CONFIRMED RATE
10%
ROI
-49.8%
60 settled·since 2026-06-28

Low-probability bets. Each ticket pays 4–6x when YES hits, so a 15-25% win rate at sub-25¢ prices is the design — not a problem.

RECENT CALLS

LAST 20 SPINE READS.

What the spine called, what the market priced, what settled. Confirmations and misses, in the order they came in. Not curated.

LATEST SPINE READS · LIVE
20 CALLS
Date
Engine
Market
Spine
Market
Result
07.05
PITCHER Ks
CASEY MIZE 8+ STRIKEOUTS
25%
14%
MISSED
07.05
HR YES
BOBBY WITT JR. 1+ HOME RUNS
7%
20%
MISSED
07.05
HR YES
PETE ALONSO 1+ HOME RUNS
13%
27%
MISSED
07.05
MLB WINNER
SAN DIEGO VS LOS ANGELES D WINNER
48%
70%
MISSED
07.05
HR YES
IAN HAPP 1+ HOME RUNS
3%
15%
MISSED
07.05
HR YES
WILLSON CONTRERAS 1+ HOME RUNS
19%
23%
CONFIRMED
07.05
HR YES
GARRETT MITCHELL 1+ HOME RUNS
14%
15%
MISSED
07.05
HR YES
JORDAN WALKER 1+ HOME RUNS
9%
22%
MISSED
07.05
PITCHER Ks
ROBBIE RAY 6+ STRIKEOUTS
44%
34%
MISSED
07.05
HR YES
ERIC WAGAMAN 1+ HOME RUNS
14%
11%
MISSED
07.05
HR YES
JUAN SOTO 1+ HOME RUNS
19%
17%
MISSED
07.05
HR YES
YORDAN ALVAREZ 1+ HOME RUNS
20%
26%
CONFIRMED
07.05
HR YES
RANDAL GRICHUK 1+ HOME RUNS
20%
15%
MISSED
07.05
HR YES
MIGUEL VARGAS 1+ HOME RUNS
20%
17%
MISSED
07.04
HR YES
COLE YOUNG 1+ HOME RUNS
12%
11%
MISSED
07.04
HR YES
KAZUMA OKAMOTO 1+ HOME RUNS
16%
20%
MISSED
07.04
HR YES
DILLON DINGLER 1+ HOME RUNS
21%
17%
MISSED
07.04
PITCHER Ks
LOGAN GILBERT 7+ STRIKEOUTS
52%
28%
CONFIRMED
07.04
MLB WINNER
MINNESOTA VS NEW YORK Y WINNER
57%
59%
CONFIRMED
07.04
HR YES
ESMERLYN VALDEZ 1+ HOME RUNS
14%
23%
MISSED
━━ END OF BOARD ━━MODEL PERFORMANCE · LIVE LEDGER

Settled outcomes graded by Kalshi market_result. Paper-portfolio basis: 1 unit per pick.

TONIGHT'S SLATE

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DISCLOSURE · MODEL PERFORMANCE

Every published read is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market. The numbers above are model performance metrics on a paper-portfolio basis (1 unit per read) — not realized trading P&L. The natural person operating BetFly may separately trade some of these markets in a personal capacity; their personal book is not BetFly's and is not shown here. Read more on the disclaimer page.

THIS RECORD UPDATES EVERY MORNING

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