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AI MODEL READ

CONFIRMED LINEUPS

LAD vs ATL

Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves

Tuesday, October 6, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the LAD @ ATL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

LOS ANGELESLAD
1·0
ATLANTAATL
TOP 10-10 OUT

FIELD

LAD DUGOUTATL DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

LAD Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB93.4
CH82.2
FB93.4

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

LAD Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · LAD LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

ATL to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

ATL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL ATL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

ATL wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYLAD Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 20 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEATL
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

LAD STARTER

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

GOOD
5.7
PROJECTED Ks
110
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Split-Finger · 27% · 34% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 26% · 29% whiffCutter · 15% · 24% whiff

ATL STARTER

Chris Sale

ELITE
6.9
PROJECTED Ks
122
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 41% · 28% whiffSlider · 40% · 38% whiffChangeup · 10% · 30% whiff

Chris Sale grades elite (Pitching+ 122) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto grades good (Pitching+ 110)

LAD LINEUP

  1. 1Mookie Betts (R)hit 63% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Freddie Freeman (L)hit 60% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Teoscar Hernández (R)hit 61% · HR 16%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Will Smith (R)hit 58% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Shohei Ohtani (L)hit 61% · HR 18%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Miguel Rojas (R)hit 57% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Andy Pages (R)hit 57% · HR 12%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Kyle Tucker (L)hit 53% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Enrique Hernández (R)hit 43% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    43%

    1+ HIT

    9%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    20%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    22%

    SCORES A RUN

ATL LINEUP

  1. 1Drake Baldwin (L)hit 70% · HR 21%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)hit 65% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Matt Olson (L)hit 61% · HR 23%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Ozzie Albies (S)hit 52% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Michael Harris II (L)hit 65% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Mauricio Dubón (R)hit 59% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Sean Murphy (R)hit 47% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    47%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Austin Riley (R)hit 50% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Ha-Seong Kim (R)hit 40% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    40%

    1+ HIT

    8%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    17%

    2+ BASES

    8%

    3+ BASES

    5%

    4+ BASES

    14%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

LAD ATL

Game Markets

LAD @ ATL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

ATL to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

ATL F5

46%

Game Total

Over 8.5

34%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

34%

Run Line

ATL -1.5

35%

Team Total

LAD Over 4.5

32%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

32%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 7.23 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: LAD 3.54, ATL 3.69
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs Chris Sale (ATL)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
YY

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

LAD SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

71%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

53%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

8%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

95%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

37%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

54%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

38%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.7 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.7 strikeouts
  • 71% to reach 5+ against ATL
CS

Chris Sale

ATL SP · vs. LAD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

83%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

71%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

55%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

40%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

26%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

74%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

42%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

45%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

31%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.9 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.9 strikeouts
  • 83% to reach 5+ against LAD
MO

Matt Olson

ATL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
DB

Drake Baldwin

ATL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
SO

Shohei Ohtani

LAD · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Chris Sale
RJ

Ronald Acuña Jr.

ATL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
MI

Michael Harris II

ATL · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
MB

Mookie Betts

LAD · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Chris Sale
TH

Teoscar Hernández

LAD · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Chris Sale
WS

Will Smith

LAD · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 11% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Chris Sale
FF

Freddie Freeman

LAD · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 23% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Chris Sale
MD

Mauricio Dubón

ATL · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
AP

Andy Pages

LAD · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Chris Sale
MR

Miguel Rojas

LAD · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Chris Sale
AR

Austin Riley

ATL · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 52%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
KT

Kyle Tucker

LAD · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 59%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Chris Sale
OA

Ozzie Albies

ATL · bats S · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 59%.

  • Batting 4 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
SM

Sean Murphy

ATL · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 22% against 25%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
EH

Enrique Hernández

LAD · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

45%

Hits

2+ hits

10%

Total Bases

2+ bases

21%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 45% against 59%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Chris Sale
HK

Ha-Seong Kim

ATL · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

42%

Hits

2+ hits

9%

Total Bases

2+ bases

18%

Total Bases

3+ bases

8%

Total Bases

4+ bases

5%

RBIs

1+ RBI

14%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 42% against 59%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

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