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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

NYY vs TB

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays

Monday, October 5, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the NYY @ TB simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

NEW YORKNYY
1·0
TAMPA BAYTB
TOP 10-10 OUT

FIELD

NYY DUGOUTTB DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

NYY Leadoff (R) vs HP

SL84.9
CV77.3
FB94.7

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

NYY Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · NYY LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

TB to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

TB -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL TB

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

TB wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYNYY Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 19 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME TOTAL

✗ MISSED

NYY Over 4.5 runs

36%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

straight from our 5,000-trial sim · 90°F, 10mph wind · pitcher-friendly park

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGENYY
LINEUP EDGENYY

NYY STARTER

Cam Schlittler

GOOD
6.6
PROJECTED Ks
114
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 45% · 35% whiffCutter · 26% · 24% whiffSinker · 19% · 17% whiff

TB STARTER

Freddy Peralta

AVERAGE
5.3
PROJECTED Ks
104
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 53% · 22% whiffChangeup · 23% · 29% whiffCurveball · 14% · 32% whiff

Freddy Peralta grades avg (Pitching+ 104) vs Cam Schlittler grades good (Pitching+ 114)

NYY LINEUP

  1. 1Ben Rice (L)hit 68% · HR 31%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    31%

    HOME RUN

    49%

    2+ BASES

    37%

    3+ BASES

    32%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Cody Bellinger (L)hit 58% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Luis García Jr. (L)hit 66% · HR 23%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Spencer Jones (L)hit 55% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5George Lombard Jr. (R)hit 53% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)hit 51% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Trent Grisham (L)hit 50% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Austin Wells (L)hit 44% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    44%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Ryan McMahon (L)hit 47% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    47%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

TB LINEUP

  1. 1Yandy Díaz (R)hit 63% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Jonathan Aranda (L)hit 60% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Junior Caminero (R)hit 64% · HR 24%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Liam Hicks (L)hit 60% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Chandler Simpson (L)hit 62% · HR 3%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    3%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Victor Mesa Jr. (L)hit 52% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Jonny DeLuca (R)hit 49% · HR 9%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Richie Palacios (L)hit 48% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Taylor Walls (S)hit 38% · HR 3%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    38%

    1+ HIT

    7%

    2+ HITS

    3%

    HOME RUN

    15%

    2+ BASES

    6%

    3+ BASES

    4%

    4+ BASES

    15%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    22%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

NYY TB

Game Markets

NYY @ TB · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYY to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

TB F5

34%

Game Total

Over 8.5

37%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

41%

Run Line

TB -1.5

27%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

41%

Team Total

TB Over 4.5

29%

THE READ

NYY projects to outscore TB by 0.86 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: NYY 4.22, TB 3.36
  • Cam Schlittler (NYY) vs Freddy Peralta (TB)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
CS

Cam Schlittler

NYY SP · vs. TB

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

79%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

65%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

23%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

79%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

58%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

52%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

38%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.6 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.6 strikeouts
  • 79% to reach 5+ against TB
FP

Freddy Peralta

TB SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

64%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

6%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

76%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

10%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

44%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

29%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
  • 64% to reach 5+ against NYY
BR

Ben Rice

NYY · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

31%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

40%

Total Bases

4+ bases

34%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
LJ

Luis García Jr.

NYY · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
JC

Junior Caminero

TB · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Cam Schlittler
YD

Yandy Díaz

TB · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Cam Schlittler
CS

Chandler Simpson

TB · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

3%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cam Schlittler
LH

Liam Hicks

TB · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 23% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Cam Schlittler
JA

Jonathan Aranda

TB · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 18% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Cam Schlittler
SJ

Spencer Jones

NYY · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 11% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
VJ

Victor Mesa Jr.

TB · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 11% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Cam Schlittler
CB

Cody Bellinger

NYY · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 21% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
TG

Trent Grisham

NYY · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 14% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
GJ

George Lombard Jr.

NYY · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 55%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
JJ

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

NYY · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 25% against 26%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
JD

Jonny DeLuca

TB · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 57%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Cam Schlittler
RM

Ryan McMahon

NYY · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 2+ RBIs at 9% against 10%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
RP

Richie Palacios

TB · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 57%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Cam Schlittler
AW

Austin Wells

NYY · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

46%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 11% against 13%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Freddy Peralta
TW

Taylor Walls

TB · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

3%

Hits

1+ hits

40%

Hits

2+ hits

8%

Total Bases

2+ bases

16%

Total Bases

3+ bases

6%

Total Bases

4+ bases

4%

RBIs

1+ RBI

15%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 40% against 57%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cam Schlittler

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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