BETFLYAISIGN IN
CHICAGOCWS
84-78 · +2 AL CENTRAL · W1 · 7-3 L10
@MON 5:00 PM ETCLE HOME PARK
85-77 · +1 AL CENTRAL · L1 · 8-2 L10
CLEVELANDCLE
Weather
—
Home plate ump
Gabe Morales K-0.3%
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
2-game set · 2-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Anthony Kay
LHP · CWSPROBABLE
STUFF+104
ERA
4.44
IP
158.0
K/9
7.3
BB/9
3.2
WHIP
1.37
L5 STARTS5.55 ERA · 16.2% K · 7.1% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
24%
23%
18%
17%
14%
4-Seam FastballSweeperSinkerCutterChangeupSlider
Gavin Williams
RHP · CLEPROBABLE
STUFF+104
ERA
3.76
IP
184.1
K/9
12.1
BB/9
3.0
WHIP
1.11
L5 STARTS2.56 ERA · 38.6% K · 10.5% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
26%
23%
22%
20%
10%
SweeperCurveball4-Seam FastballSinkerCutter
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS9 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · GAME MARKETS

Cleveland · moneyline

Williams's K-monster edge over a hittable opp

— Kalshi26% book38% +12pp

Under 2.5 (F5) · f5_total

both starters dominant (Williams / Kay)

— Kalshi17% book27% +10pp

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Miguel Vargas · Over 2.5 3+ TB

engine edge vs Kalshi batter total bases

— Kalshi9% book21% +12pp

Colson Montgomery · Over 1.5 2+ TB

engine edge vs Kalshi batter total bases

— Kalshi16% book28% +12pp

Munetaka Murakami · Over 0.5 1+ HR

engine edge vs Kalshi batter home runs

— Kalshi8% book19% +11pp

Munetaka Murakami · Over 3.5 4+ TB

engine edge vs Kalshi batter total bases

— Kalshi17% book27% +10pp

Munetaka Murakami · Over 1.5 2+ TB

engine edge vs Kalshi batter total bases

— Kalshi24% book34% +10pp

Miguel Vargas · Over 1.5 2+ TB

engine edge vs Kalshi batter total bases

— Kalshi26% book36% +10pp

Miguel Vargas · Over 0.5 1+ HR

engine edge vs Kalshi batter home runs

— Kalshi8% book16% +8pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETGuardians 62%

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

CWS CLE

Game Markets

CWS @ CLE · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

62%

1st 5 Innings

CLE F5

52%

Game Total

Over 8.5

41%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

44%

Run Line

CLE -1.5

43%

Team Total

CWS Over 4.5

31%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

43%

THE READ

CLE projects to outscore CWS by 0.91 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CWS 3.54, CLE 4.45
  • Anthony Kay (CWS) vs Gavin Williams (CLE)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
AK

Anthony Kay

CWS SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

7%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

0%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

43%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

28%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.8 strikeouts
  • 14% to reach 5+ against CLE
GW

Gavin Williams

CLE SP · vs. CWS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

88%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

79%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

67%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

54%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

41%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

51%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

25%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

25%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

15%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.0 strikeouts
  • 88% to reach 5+ against CWS
MM

Munetaka Murakami

CWS · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Gavin Williams
JA

Jo Adell

CLE · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 21% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Anthony Kay
MV

Miguel Vargas

CWS · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Gavin Williams
CD

Chase DeLauter

CLE · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Anthony Kay
SK

Steven Kwan

CLE · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Anthony Kay
KT

Kyle Teel

CWS · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Gavin Williams
JR

José Ramírez

CLE · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Anthony Kay
NL

Nathaniel Lowe

CLE · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Anthony Kay
CM

Colson Montgomery

CWS · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

41%

Hits

2+ hits

9%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Gavin Williams
AB

Andrew Benintendi

CWS · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Gavin Williams
SA

Sam Antonacci

CWS · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Gavin Williams
AM

Angel Martínez

CLE · bats S · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Anthony Kay
BR

Brayan Rocchio

CLE · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Anthony Kay
TB

Travis Bazzana

CLE · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Anthony Kay
PB

Patrick Bailey

CLE · bats S · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.

  • Batting 8 · bats S
  • Facing Anthony Kay
TP

Tristan Peters

CWS · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 59%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Gavin Williams
BM

Braden Montgomery

CWS · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 59%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Gavin Williams
CM

Chase Meidroth

CWS · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 59%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Gavin Williams
— SPLITS THAT MATTER

ANTHONY KAY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CLE hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%14.9%OPS-against.871
vs Left-handedK%26.8%OPS-against.504
CLE vs RHP (team)OPS.706K%20.6%

GAVIN WILLIAMS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CWS hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%30.2%OPS-against.727
vs Left-handedK%35.3%OPS-against.621
CWS vs LHP (team)OPS.751K%24.4%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

CLE BATTERS vs ANTHONY KAY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

CWS BATTERS vs GAVIN WILLIAMS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
CWS 2·CLE 0
2-game set · gm 2 of 2
2026 SEASON
CWS 10·CLE 10
20 played · 0 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
57%CLE
CWS 145 · CLE 192 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-10-11CLE 2-0 · Pitchers duel
2026-10-09CLE 9-5
2026-10-07CLE 9-3 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

CWS OFFENSE

.326L15 team wOBA
+10 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

CLE OFFENSE

.332L15 team wOBA
+16 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT
PROGRESSIVE FIELD
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH

Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE
MORALES
Called K rate-0.3% vs avg
Runs per 9—
Games this yr335

Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

GUARDIANS 62%

Mean score sim 3.5–4.5 · projected total 8.0 runs · built on locked lineups

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

GO EDGE · $10/MO