MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Michael King · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks
engine edge vs Kalshi pitcher strikeouts
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
SD @ MIL · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIL to win
64%
1st 5 Innings
MIL F5
53%
Game Total
Over 8.5
41%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
44%
Run Line
MIL -1.5
46%
Team Total
SD Over 4.5
29%
Team Total
MIL Over 4.5
45%
THE READ
MIL projects to outscore SD by 1.15 runs across 5,000 trials.
SD SP · vs. MIL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
41%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
24%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
68%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
30%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
58%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
44%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.
MIL SP · vs. SD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
62%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
44%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
27%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
7%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
49%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
15%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
37%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
24%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIL hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).
HR-friendly with roof closed.
Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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