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AI MODEL READ

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ATL vs LAD

Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers

Sunday, October 4, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the ATL @ LAD simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

ATLANTAATL
0·0
LOS ANGELESLAD
TOP 11-00 OUT

FIELD

ATL DUGOUTLAD DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

ATL Leadoff (R) vs HP

SL85.1
FB94.7
FB93.1

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

ATL Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · ATL LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

LAD to win

58%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

LAD -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL LAD

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

LAD wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYATL Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 16 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Los Angeles D wins

42%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGELAD
LINEUP EDGELAD

ATL STARTER

Ray Kerr

GOOD
2.7
PROJECTED Ks
107
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Curveball · 38% · 33% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 36% · 27% whiffSinker · 23% · 4% whiff

LAD STARTER

Blake Snell

ELITE
5.6
PROJECTED Ks
120
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 50% · 23% whiffCurveball · 22% · 43% whiffChangeup · 18% · 45% whiff

Blake Snell grades elite (Pitching+ 120) vs Ray Kerr grades good (Pitching+ 107)

ATL LINEUP

  1. 1Drake Baldwin (L)hit 63% · HR 17%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)hit 58% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Matt Olson (L)hit 57% · HR 21%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Ozzie Albies (S)hit 51% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    23%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Michael Harris II (L)hit 60% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Mauricio Dubón (R)hit 53% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    23%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Sean Murphy (R)hit 41% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    41%

    1+ HIT

    9%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    23%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Austin Riley (R)hit 44% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    44%

    1+ HIT

    10%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    17%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Lane Thomas (R)hit 43% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    43%

    1+ HIT

    9%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    16%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

LAD LINEUP

  1. 1Mookie Betts (R)hit 66% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Shohei Ohtani (L)hit 69% · HR 21%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Will Smith (R)hit 66% · HR 17%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Freddie Freeman (L)hit 65% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Teoscar Hernández (R)hit 64% · HR 17%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Kyle Tucker (L)hit 59% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Andy Pages (R)hit 62% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Miguel Rojas (R)hit 56% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Tommy Edman (S)hit 51% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

ATL LAD

Game Markets

ATL @ LAD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

LAD to win

64%

1st 5 Innings

LAD F5

56%

Game Total

Over 8.5

38%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

42%

Run Line

LAD -1.5

44%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

28%

Team Total

LAD Over 4.5

43%

THE READ

LAD projects to outscore ATL by 1.12 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: ATL 3.33, LAD 4.44
  • Ray Kerr (ATL) vs Blake Snell (LAD)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
RK

Ray Kerr

ATL SP · vs. LAD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

26%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

53%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

38%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.7 strikeouts
  • 12% to reach 5+ against LAD
BS

Blake Snell

LAD SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

69%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

51%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

9%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

23%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

2%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

19%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

10%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.6 strikeouts
  • 69% to reach 5+ against ATL
SO

Shohei Ohtani

LAD · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 26% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Ray Kerr
MO

Matt Olson

ATL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Blake Snell
TH

Teoscar Hernández

LAD · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Ray Kerr
MB

Mookie Betts

LAD · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Ray Kerr
WS

Will Smith

LAD · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Ray Kerr
RJ

Ronald Acuña Jr.

ATL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Blake Snell
FF

Freddie Freeman

LAD · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Ray Kerr
DB

Drake Baldwin

ATL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Blake Snell
AP

Andy Pages

LAD · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Ray Kerr
MI

Michael Harris II

ATL · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 14% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Blake Snell
KT

Kyle Tucker

LAD · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Ray Kerr
MR

Miguel Rojas

LAD · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Ray Kerr
MD

Mauricio Dubón

ATL · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 60%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Blake Snell
TE

Tommy Edman

LAD · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 60%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Ray Kerr
OA

Ozzie Albies

ATL · bats S · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 60%.

  • Batting 4 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Blake Snell
SM

Sean Murphy

ATL · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

43%

Hits

2+ hits

9%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 10% against 13%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Blake Snell
AR

Austin Riley

ATL · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

46%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 46% against 60%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Blake Snell
LT

Lane Thomas

ATL · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

44%

Hits

2+ hits

10%

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 44% against 60%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Blake Snell

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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