BETFLYAISIGN IN
SAN DIEGOSD
91-71 · +2 NL WEST · W2 · 8-2 L10
@SAT 8:30 PM ETMIL HOME PARK
103-59 · +1 NL CENTRAL · W5 · 8-2 L10
MILWAUKEEMIL
Weather
56°F · 5mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
2-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Robbie Ray
LHP · SDPROBABLE
STUFF+95
ERA
3.59
IP
165.2
K/9
7.6
BB/9
4.6
WHIP
1.35
L5 STARTS6.08 ERA · 17.6% K · 13.7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
37%
27%
17%
10%
9%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeupSinkerCurveball
Jacob Misiorowski
RHP · MILPROBABLE
STUFF+126
ERA
1.80
IP
174.2
K/9
13.0
BB/9
2.3
WHIP
0.80
L5 STARTS2.33 ERA · 31.9% K · 9.6% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
63%
14%
11%
10%
4-Seam FastballCutterCurveballSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBrewers 71%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

SD MIL

Game Markets

SD @ MIL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIL to win

71%

1st 5 Innings

MIL F5

62%

Game Total

Over 8.5

40%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

42%

Run Line

MIL -1.5

53%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

23%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

49%

THE READ

MIL projects to outscore SD by 1.87 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: SD 2.96, MIL 4.82
  • Robbie Ray (SD) vs Jacob Misiorowski (MIL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
RR

Robbie Ray

SD SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

52%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

17%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

51%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

38%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
  • 41% to reach 5+ against MIL
JM

Jacob Misiorowski

MIL SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

86%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

74%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

60%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

31%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

41%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

12%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

18%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

10%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.3 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.3 strikeouts
  • 86% to reach 5+ against SD

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

ROBBIE RAY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%20.1%OPS-against.679
vs Left-handedK%23.3%OPS-against.691
MIL vs RHP (team)OPS.759K%22.3%

JACOB MISIOROWSKI SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%29.8%OPS-against.582
vs Left-handedK%44.5%OPS-against.378
SD vs LHP (team)OPS.706K%21.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

MIL BATTERS vs ROBBIE RAY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SD BATTERS vs JACOB MISIOROWSKI

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
SD 0·MIL 0
2-game set · gm 1 of 2
2026 SEASON
SD 5·MIL 3
8 played · 11 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
53%MIL
SD 66 · MIL 75 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-12SD 4-3 · One-run game
2026-08-12SD 11-2 · Blowout
2026-08-11SD 3-2 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

SD OFFENSE

.358L15 team wOBA
+42 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6

MIL OFFENSE

.331L15 team wOBA
+15 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT56° · 5mph out to LF
AMERICAN FAMILY FIELD
108HR
HR factor1.08 · +
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

HR-friendly with roof closed.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
56°F
Wind5 mph out to LF
Humidity86%
Rain4%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO