MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Drew Rasmussen · Under 6.5 <7 Pitcher Ks
engine edge vs Kalshi pitcher strikeouts
Drew Rasmussen · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks
engine edge vs Kalshi pitcher strikeouts
Drew Rasmussen · Under 7.5 <8 Pitcher Ks
engine edge vs Kalshi pitcher strikeouts
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
NYY @ TB · full-game reads
Moneyline
TB to win
56%
1st 5 Innings
TB F5
47%
Game Total
Over 8.5
32%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
36%
Run Line
TB -1.5
36%
Team Total
NYY Over 4.5
29%
Team Total
TB Over 4.5
33%
THE READ
TB projects to outscore NYY by 0.30 runs across 5,000 trials.
NYY SP · vs. TB
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
58%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
38%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
21%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
5%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
92%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
61%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
63%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
49%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.
TB SP · vs. NYY
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
61%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
42%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
6%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
83%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
35%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
46%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
32%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TB hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).
Interim park post-Tropicana damage.
Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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