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CHICAGOCWS
84-78 · +2 AL CENTRAL · W1 · 7-3 L10
@SAT 1:00 PM ETCLE HOME PARK
85-77 · +1 AL CENTRAL · L1 · 8-2 L10
CLEVELANDCLE
Weather
64°F · 7mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
2-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Hagen Smith
LHP · CWSPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
1.29
IP
28.0
K/9
13.2
BB/9
5.1
WHIP
0.96
L5 STARTS5.87 ERA · 33.3% K · 22.2% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

Parker Messick
LHP · CLEPROBABLE
STUFF+96
ERA
2.56
IP
186.1
K/9
9.3
BB/9
2.4
WHIP
1.06
L5 STARTS3.23 ERA · 29.1% K · 5.5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
34%
24%
17%
11%
4-Seam FastballChangeupSinkerCurveballCutterSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Parker Messick · Under 7.5 <8 Pitcher Ks

engine edge vs Kalshi pitcher strikeouts

— Kalshi69% book8% +23pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETGuardians 53%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

CWS CLE

Game Markets

CWS @ CLE · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

CLE F5

36%

Game Total

Over 8.5

34%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

33%

Run Line

CLE -1.5

33%

Team Total

CWS Over 4.5

33%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

33%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 7.31 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: CWS 3.62, CLE 3.69
  • Hagen Smith (CWS) vs Parker Messick (CLE)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
HS

Hagen Smith

CWS SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

90%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

80%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

66%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

33%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

52%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

16%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

28%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

17%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.5 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.5 strikeouts
  • 90% to reach 5+ against CLE
PM

Parker Messick

CLE SP · vs. CWS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

45%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

14%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

40%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

26%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
  • 47% to reach 5+ against CWS

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

HAGEN SMITH SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CLE hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%43.7%OPS-against.360
vs Left-handedK%25.6%OPS-against.534
CLE vs LHP (team)OPS.675K%21.3%

PARKER MESSICK SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CWS hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%26.6%OPS-against.599
vs Left-handedK%23.9%OPS-against.688
CWS vs LHP (team)OPS.751K%24.4%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

CLE BATTERS vs HAGEN SMITH

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

CWS BATTERS vs PARKER MESSICK

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
CWS 0·CLE 0
2-game set · gm 1 of 2
2026 SEASON
CWS 8·CLE 7
15 played · 4 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
57%CLE
CWS 143 · CLE 189 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-16CLE 6-3
2026-09-15CLE 7-6 · One-run game
2026-09-14CWS 7-3
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

CWS OFFENSE

.326L15 team wOBA
+10 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

CLE OFFENSE

.332L15 team wOBA
+16 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT64° · 7mph out to LF
PROGRESSIVE FIELD
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
64°F
Wind7 mph out to LF
Humidity56%
Rain0%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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