MODEL VS THE BOOKS · GAME MARKETS
Under 4.5 (F5) · f5_total
pitcher's duel + park suppresses runs
Under 3.5 (F5) · f5_total
pitcher's duel + park suppresses runs
MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Matt Olson · Over 2.5 3+ TB
engine edge vs Kalshi batter total bases
Drake Baldwin · Over 3.5 4+ TB
engine edge vs Kalshi batter total bases
Ronald Acuña Jr. · Over 3.5 4+ TB
engine edge vs Kalshi batter total bases
Matt Olson · Over 0.5 1+ HR
engine edge vs Kalshi batter home runs
Shohei Ohtani · Over 0.5 1+ HR
engine edge vs Kalshi batter home runs
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
ATL @ LAD · full-game reads
Moneyline
LAD to win
66%
1st 5 Innings
LAD F5
58%
Game Total
Over 8.5
38%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
40%
Run Line
LAD -1.5
47%
Team Total
ATL Over 4.5
26%
Team Total
LAD Over 4.5
44%
THE READ
LAD projects to outscore ATL by 1.28 runs across 5,000 trials.
ATL SP · vs. LAD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
9%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
1%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
30%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
20%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
LAD SP · vs. ATL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
84%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
69%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
51%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
35%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
21%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
73%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
30%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
35%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
22%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.7 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
LAD · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ATL · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ATL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
LAD · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
LAD · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
LAD · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
LAD · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
LAD · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ATL · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ATL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 20% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
LAD · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.
LAD · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.
ATL · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.
ATL · bats S · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 59%.
LAD · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 59%.
ATL · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
50%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
26%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 59%.
ATL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
43%
Hits
2+ hits
10%
Total Bases
2+ bases
23%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
18%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 43% against 59%.
ATL · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
37%
Hits
2+ hits
7%
Total Bases
2+ bases
15%
Total Bases
3+ bases
8%
Total Bases
4+ bases
6%
RBIs
1+ RBI
12%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
3%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 37% against 59%.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAD hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).
HR-friendly, low BABIP.
Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.
Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.
Mean score sim 3.2–4.5 · projected total 7.7 runs · built on locked lineups
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