NEW YORKNYY
93-68 · +2 AL EAST · W1 · 5-5 L10
@2026-10-02TB HOME PARK
98-64 · +1 AL EAST · L1 · 5-5 L10
TAMPA BAYTB
Weather
81°F · 5mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
2-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRays 56%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

NYY TB

Game Markets

NYY @ TB · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TB to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

TB F5

47%

Game Total

Over 8.5

32%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

36%

Run Line

TB -1.5

36%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

29%

Team Total

TB Over 4.5

33%

THE READ

TB projects to outscore NYY by 0.30 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: NYY 3.37, TB 3.67
  • Gerrit Cole (NYY) vs Drew Rasmussen (TB)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
GC

Gerrit Cole

NYY SP · vs. TB

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

58%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

92%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

61%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

63%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

49%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.0 strikeouts
  • 58% to reach 5+ against TB
DR

Drew Rasmussen

TB SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

61%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

42%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

6%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

83%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

35%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

46%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

32%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.2 strikeouts
  • 61% to reach 5+ against NYY

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TB hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

TB vs LHP (team)OPS.679K%18.1%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

NYY vs RHP (team)OPS.714K%24.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

TB BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

NYY BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
NYY 0·TB 0
2-game set · gm 1 of 2
2026 SEASON
NYY 9·TB 7
16 played · 3 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
51%NYY
NYY 171 · TB 166 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-24NYY 6-4
2026-09-23NYY 9-2 · Blowout
2026-09-22TB 6-1
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

NYY OFFENSE

.308L15 team wOBA
-8 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

TB OFFENSE

.290L15 team wOBA
-26 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT81° · 5mph out to LF
STEINBRENNER FIELD
100HR
HR factor1.00 · neutral
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Interim park post-Tropicana damage.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
81°F
Wind5 mph out to LF
Humidity88%
Rain31%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

RAYS 56%

Mean score sim 3.4–3.7 · projected total 7.0 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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