AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDPHI vs ATL
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Thursday, October 1, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the PHI @ ATL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
PHI Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
PHI Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · PHI LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
ATL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
ATL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL ATL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
ATL wins F5
event 1 / 16 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
PHI STARTER
Aaron Nola
SHAKY- 5.7
- PROJECTED Ks
- —
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.
ATL STARTER
Ray Kerr
GOOD- 3.0
- PROJECTED Ks
- —
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Ray Kerr projects 3.0 Ks vs Aaron Nola projects 5.7 Ks
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
Game Markets
PHI @ ATL · full-game reads
Moneyline
ATL to win
51%
1st 5 Innings
ATL F5
42%
Game Total
Over 8.5
44%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
49%
Run Line
ATL -1.5
34%
Team Total
PHI Over 4.5
39%
Team Total
ATL Over 4.5
40%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 8.26 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: PHI 4.12, ATL 4.14
- Aaron Nola (PHI) vs Ray Kerr (ATL)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Aaron Nola
PHI SP · vs. ATL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
70%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
53%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
34%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
20%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
10%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
90%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
49%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
61%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
47%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.7 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.7 strikeouts
- 70% to reach 5+ against ATL
Ray Kerr
ATL SP · vs. PHI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
26%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
0%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
48%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
33%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.0 strikeouts
- 15% to reach 5+ against PHI
BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.