MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Nick Pivetta · Under 14.5 <15 Outs
bullpen-aggressive manager + struggling starter
Nick Pivetta · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks
contact lineup limits the K ceiling
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
CHC @ SD · full-game reads
Moneyline
SD to win
54%
1st 5 Innings
SD F5
44%
Game Total
Over 8.5
39%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
40%
Run Line
SD -1.5
35%
Team Total
CHC Over 4.5
36%
Team Total
SD Over 4.5
37%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 7.82 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
CHC SP · vs. SD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
62%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
43%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
26%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
8%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
57%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
21%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
47%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
32%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.
SD SP · vs. CHC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
34%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
22%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
2%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
32%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
19%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CHC hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Marine layer suppresses HR.
Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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