BETFLYAISIGN IN
BOSTONBOS
87-75 · +3 AL EAST · L1 · 5-5 L10
@WED 8:00 PM ETNYY HOME PARK
93-68 · +2 AL EAST · W1 · 5-5 L10
NEW YORKNYY
Weather
64°F · 4mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Sonny Gray
RHP · BOSPROBABLE
STUFF+103
ERA
2.72
IP
169.0
K/9
7.9
BB/9
2.5
WHIP
1.15
L5 STARTS2.39 ERA · 21.7% K · 8.3% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
20%
20%
19%
18%
17%
CutterSweeper4-Seam FastballSinkerCurveball
Max Fried
LHP · NYYPROBABLE
STUFF+106
ERA
2.80
IP
112.2
K/9
8.3
BB/9
2.6
WHIP
0.99
L5 STARTS2.91 ERA · 24.5% K · 5.9% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
22%
22%
17%
14%
14%
10%
CutterSinker4-Seam FastballCurveballChangeupSweeper
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS3 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Sonny Gray · Over 14.5 15+ Outs

long-leash spot vs softer opp

-155 Fanatics61% book87% +26pp

Sonny Gray · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks

modest K rate + contact-shy opp

+101 DraftKings50% book71% +21pp

Max Fried · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks

modest K rate + contact-shy opp

-122 FanDuel55% book63% +8pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETYankees 60%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

BOS NYY

Game Markets

BOS @ NYY · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYY to win

60%

1st 5 Innings

NYY F5

50%

Game Total

Over 8.5

48%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

50%

Run Line

NYY -1.5

41%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

48%

THE READ

NYY projects to outscore BOS by 0.77 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: BOS 4.01, NYY 4.79
  • Sonny Gray (BOS) vs Max Fried (NYY)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
SG

Sonny Gray

BOS SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

49%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

98%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

66%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

75%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

63%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
  • 49% to reach 5+ against NYY
MF

Max Fried

NYY SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

57%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

40%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

8%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

74%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

48%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

59%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

45%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.0 strikeouts
  • 57% to reach 5+ against BOS

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

SONNY GRAY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%18.4%OPS-against.682
vs Left-handedK%23.6%OPS-against.653
NYY vs LHP (team)OPS.733K%24.4%

MAX FRIED SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%24.8%OPS-against.558
vs Left-handedK%21.4%OPS-against.473
BOS vs RHP (team)OPS.711K%21.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

NYY BATTERS vs SONNY GRAY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

BOS BATTERS vs MAX FRIED

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
BOS 0·NYY 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
BOS 6·NYY 11
17 played · 2 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
53%NYY
BOS 159 · NYY 176 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-30NYY 9-0 · Blowout
2026-08-30NYY 16-1 · Blowout
2026-08-29NYY 9-2 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
BOS47¢ · 47%
NYY57¢ · 57%
Total 6.5
Over55¢ · 55%
Under50¢ · 50%
Run line ±1.5
BOS -1.5— · —
NYY +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT6→3.5→4.5→3.5→4.5→6.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

BOS OFFENSE

.277L15 team wOBA
-39 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

NYY OFFENSE

.308L15 team wOBA
-8 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT64° · 4mph out to LF
YANKEE STADIUM
112HR
HR factor1.12 · +
Runs factor1.04 · neutral
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Short porch — LH HR heaven.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
64°F
Wind4 mph out to LF
Humidity93%
Rain0%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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