BETFLYAISIGN IN
PHILADELPHIAPHI
88-74 · +2 NL EAST · W1 · 4-6 L10
@TUE 2:00 PM ETATL HOME PARK
94-68 · +1 NL EAST · L1 · 5-5 L10
ATLANTAATL
Weather
80°F · 3mph in from CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Jesús Luzardo
LHP · PHIPROBABLE
STUFF+111
ERA
2.86
IP
179.2
K/9
11.1
BB/9
2.6
WHIP
1.07
L5 STARTS0.95 ERA · 33% K · 5.5% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
37%
25%
21%
18%
Sweeper4-Seam FastballChangeupSinker
Chris Sale
LHP · ATLPROBABLE
STUFF+117
ERA
2.16
IP
162.2
K/9
11.1
BB/9
1.7
WHIP
0.98
L5 STARTS2.17 ERA · 30.5% K · 2.3% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
40%
39%
12%
9%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeupSinker
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Chris Sale · Over 7.5 8+ Ks

strikeout machine on the bump

+105 BetMGM49% book58% +9pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBraves 51%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

PHI ATL

Game Markets

PHI @ ATL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PHI to win

49%

1st 5 Innings

ATL F5

40%

Game Total

Over 8.5

24%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

25%

Run Line

ATL -1.5

31%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

25%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

24%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 6.25 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: PHI 3.16, ATL 3.09
  • Jesús Luzardo (PHI) vs Chris Sale (ATL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JL

Jesús Luzardo

PHI SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

96%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

91%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

82%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

70%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

56%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

92%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

71%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

49%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

35%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 9.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 9.0 strikeouts
  • 96% to reach 5+ against ATL
CS

Chris Sale

ATL SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

92%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

84%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

72%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

58%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

43%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

83%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

56%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

43%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

29%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.1 strikeouts
  • 92% to reach 5+ against PHI

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

JESÚS LUZARDO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%28.6%OPS-against.689
vs Left-handedK%35.4%OPS-against.369
ATL vs LHP (team)OPS.696K%21.4%

CHRIS SALE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%30.2%OPS-against.570
vs Left-handedK%32.7%OPS-against.595
PHI vs LHP (team)OPS.705K%21.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

ATL BATTERS vs JESÚS LUZARDO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

PHI BATTERS vs CHRIS SALE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
PHI 0·ATL 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
PHI 4·ATL 11
15 played · 4 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
51%ATL
PHI 166 · ATL 171 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-13PHI 9-4
2026-09-12ATL 12-2 · Blowout
2026-09-11ATL 6-5 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
PHI38¢ · 38%
ATL66¢ · 66%
Total 6.5
Over55¢ · 55%
Under50¢ · 50%
Run line ±1.5
PHI -1.5— · —
ATL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7→6.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

PHI OFFENSE

.293L15 team wOBA
-23 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

ATL OFFENSE

.312L15 team wOBA
-4 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT80° · 3mph in from CF
TRUIST PARK
108HR
HR factor1.08 · +
Runs factor1.03 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

HR-friendly, especially to LF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
80°F
Wind3 mph in from CF
Humidity36%
Rain0%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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