BETFLYAISIGN IN
CHICAGOCWS
84-78 · +2 AL CENTRAL · W1 · 7-3 L10
@TUE 5:00 PM ETHOU HOME PARK
81-81 · +1 AL WEST · W2 · 5-5 L10
HOUSTONHOU
Weather
92°F · 10mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Hagen Smith
LHP · CWSPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
1.29
IP
28.0
K/9
13.2
BB/9
5.1
WHIP
0.96
L5 STARTS5.87 ERA · 33.3% K · 22.2% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

AJ Blubaugh
RHP · HOUPROBABLE
STUFF+101
ERA
3.66
IP
96.0
K/9
8.8
BB/9
3.9
WHIP
1.23
L5 STARTS12.56 ERA · 13% K · 17.4% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
51%
21%
21%
4-Seam FastballChangeupSweeper
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETAstros 55%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

CWS HOU

Game Markets

CWS @ HOU · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

HOU to win

55%

1st 5 Innings

HOU F5

39%

Game Total

Over 8.5

39%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

40%

Run Line

HOU -1.5

36%

Team Total

CWS Over 4.5

33%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

38%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 7.71 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: CWS 3.74, HOU 3.97
  • Hagen Smith (CWS) vs AJ Blubaugh (HOU)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
HS

Hagen Smith

CWS SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

80%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

64%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

20%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

29%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

6%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

25%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

15%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.5 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.5 strikeouts
  • 80% to reach 5+ against HOU
AB

AJ Blubaugh

HOU SP · vs. CWS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

0%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

0%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

21%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

11%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
  • 31% to reach 5+ against CWS

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

HAGEN SMITH SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how HOU hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%43.7%OPS-against.360
vs Left-handedK%25.6%OPS-against.534
HOU vs RHP (team)OPS.739K%22.2%

AJ BLUBAUGH SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CWS hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%23.0%OPS-against.782
vs Left-handedK%23.8%OPS-against.623
CWS vs LHP (team)OPS.751K%24.4%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

HOU BATTERS vs HAGEN SMITH

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

CWS BATTERS vs AJ BLUBAUGH

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
CWS 0·HOU 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
CWS 2·HOU 5
7 played · 12 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
56%HOU
CWS 42 · HOU 54 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-03HOU 6-2
2026-09-03HOU 2-0 · Pitchers duel
2026-09-02CWS 5-1
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
CWS48¢ · 48%
HOU55¢ · 55%
Total 8
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
CWS -1.5— · —
HOU +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→8→8.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

CWS OFFENSE

.326L15 team wOBA
+10 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

HOU OFFENSE

.341L15 team wOBA
+25 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6
— ENVIRONMENT92° · 10mph out to LF
MINUTE MAID PARK
98HR
HR factor0.98 · neutral
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Neutral — Crawford Boxes LF-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
92°F
Wind10 mph out to LF
Humidity47%
Rain11%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO