BETFLYAISIGN IN
BOSTONBOS
87-75 · +3 AL EAST · L1 · 5-5 L10
@TUE 8:00 PM ETNYY HOME PARK
93-68 · +2 AL EAST · W1 · 5-5 L10
NEW YORKNYY
Weather
65°F · 2mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Payton Tolle
LHP · BOSPROBABLE
STUFF+114
ERA
3.03
IP
148.2
K/9
10.3
BB/9
2.4
WHIP
1.10
L5 STARTS2.95 ERA · 30.8% K · 5.8% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
48%
23%
18%
8%
4-Seam FastballSinkerCutterCurveballChangeup
Cam Schlittler
RHP · NYYPROBABLE
STUFF+111
ERA
1.95
IP
193.2
K/9
11.1
BB/9
2.3
WHIP
0.92
L5 STARTS1.20 ERA · 34.5% K · 6.4% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
45%
27%
20%
4-Seam FastballCutterSinkerCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS3 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Cam Schlittler · Over 16.5 17+ Outs

innings-eater profile gets the green light

-159 BetRivers61% book72% +11pp

Payton Tolle · Over 16.5 17+ Outs

ace-tier — manager extends the leash

-125 BetRivers56% book65% +10pp

Cam Schlittler · Over 7.5 8+ Ks

K-monster arsenal

+120 DraftKings45% book51% +5pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETYankees 56%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

BOS NYY

Game Markets

BOS @ NYY · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYY to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

NYY F5

44%

Game Total

Over 8.5

33%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

32%

Run Line

NYY -1.5

35%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

30%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

34%

THE READ

NYY projects to outscore BOS by 0.30 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: BOS 3.45, NYY 3.75
  • Payton Tolle (BOS) vs Cam Schlittler (NYY)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
PT

Payton Tolle

BOS SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

87%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

74%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

56%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

22%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

98%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

55%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

57%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

42%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.9 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.9 strikeouts
  • 87% to reach 5+ against NYY
CS

Cam Schlittler

NYY SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

87%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

77%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

65%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

51%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

38%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

77%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

55%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

47%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.7 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.7 strikeouts
  • 87% to reach 5+ against BOS

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

PAYTON TOLLE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%30.7%OPS-against.624
vs Left-handedK%22.5%OPS-against.705
NYY vs RHP (team)OPS.714K%24.8%

CAM SCHLITTLER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%26.4%OPS-against.520
vs Left-handedK%34.7%OPS-against.560
BOS vs LHP (team)OPS.734K%21.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

NYY BATTERS vs PAYTON TOLLE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

BOS BATTERS vs CAM SCHLITTLER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
BOS 0·NYY 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
BOS 6·NYY 10
16 played · 3 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%NYY
BOS 159 · NYY 175 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-30NYY 16-1 · Blowout
2026-08-29NYY 9-2 · Blowout
2026-08-29BOS 6-0 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
BOS45¢ · 45%
NYY58¢ · 58%
Total 6.5
Over50¢ · 50%
Under55¢ · 55%
Run line ±1.5
BOS -1.5— · —
NYY +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT6.5→6→6.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

BOS OFFENSE

.277L15 team wOBA
-39 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

NYY OFFENSE

.308L15 team wOBA
-8 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT65° · 2mph out to RF
YANKEE STADIUM
112HR
HR factor1.12 · +
Runs factor1.04 · neutral
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Short porch — LH HR heaven.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
65°F
Wind2 mph out to RF
Humidity92%
Rain2%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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