PHILADELPHIAPHI
88-74 · +2 NL EAST · W1 · 4-6 L10
@2026-09-28ATL HOME PARK
94-68 · +1 NL EAST · L1 · 5-5 L10
ATLANTAATL
Weather
76°F · 4mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBraves 51%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

PHI ATL

Game Markets

PHI @ ATL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PHI to win

49%

1st 5 Innings

ATL F5

40%

Game Total

Over 8.5

24%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

24%

Run Line

ATL -1.5

31%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

25%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

24%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 6.24 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: PHI 3.15, ATL 3.08
  • Jesús Luzardo (PHI) vs Chris Sale (ATL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JL

Jesús Luzardo

PHI SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

96%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

91%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

82%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

69%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

55%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

92%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

70%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

49%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

34%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.9 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.9 strikeouts
  • 96% to reach 5+ against ATL
CS

Chris Sale

ATL SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

92%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

84%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

72%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

58%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

43%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

84%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

56%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

43%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

29%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.1 strikeouts
  • 92% to reach 5+ against PHI

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

ATL vs LHP (team)OPS.696K%21.4%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

PHI vs RHP (team)OPS.707K%21.6%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

ATL BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

PHI BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
PHI 0·ATL 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
PHI 4·ATL 11
15 played · 4 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
51%ATL
PHI 166 · ATL 171 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-13PHI 9-4
2026-09-12ATL 12-2 · Blowout
2026-09-11ATL 6-5 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
PHI38¢ · 38%
ATL66¢ · 66%
Total 6.5
Over55¢ · 55%
Under50¢ · 50%
Run line ±1.5
PHI -1.5— · —
ATL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT6.5→7→6.5→7→6.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

PHI OFFENSE

.293L15 team wOBA
-23 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

ATL OFFENSE

.312L15 team wOBA
-4 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT76° · 4mph out to RF
TRUIST PARK
108HR
HR factor1.08 · +
Runs factor1.03 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

HR-friendly, especially to LF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
76°F
Wind4 mph out to RF
Humidity34%
Rain0%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

BRAVES 51%

Mean score sim 3.2–3.1 · projected total 6.2 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

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