CHICAGOCHC
89-73 · +2 NL CENTRAL · W1 · 5-5 L10
@2026-09-28SD HOME PARK
91-71 · +2 NL WEST · W2 · 8-2 L10
SAN DIEGOSD
Weather
79°F · 8mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPadres 55%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

CHC SD

Game Markets

CHC @ SD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SD to win

55%

1st 5 Innings

SD F5

46%

Game Total

Over 8.5

52%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

53%

Run Line

SD -1.5

40%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

48%

THE READ

SD projects to outscore CHC by 0.29 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CHC 4.47, SD 4.76
  • Matthew Boyd (CHC) vs Michael King (SD)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
MB

Matthew Boyd

CHC SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

87%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

49%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

70%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

57%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.9 strikeouts
  • 36% to reach 5+ against SD
MK

Michael King

SD SP · vs. CHC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

75%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

37%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

55%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

42%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
  • 46% to reach 5+ against CHC

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

SD vs LHP (team)OPS.706K%21.7%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CHC hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

CHC vs RHP (team)OPS.757K%21.2%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

SD BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

CHC BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
CHC 0·SD 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
CHC 6·SD 2
8 played · 11 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
53%CHC
CHC 78 · SD 68 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-07-01CHC 23-3 · Blowout
2026-07-01CHC 9-7 · Slugfest
2026-06-30CHC 3-2 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
CHC48¢ · 48%
SD56¢ · 56%
Total 7
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
CHC -1.5— · —
SD +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7→7.5→7→7.5→7last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

CHC OFFENSE

.330L15 team wOBA
+14 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

SD OFFENSE

.358L15 team wOBA
+42 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6
— ENVIRONMENT79° · 8mph out to RF
PETCO PARK
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Marine layer suppresses HR.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
79°F
Wind8 mph out to RF
Humidity57%
Rain0%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

PADRES 55%

Mean score sim 4.5–4.8 · projected total 9.2 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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