BOSTONBOS
87-75 · +3 AL EAST · L1 · 5-5 L10
@2026-09-28NYY HOME PARK
93-68 · +2 AL EAST · W1 · 5-5 L10
NEW YORKNYY
Weather
61°F · 5mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETYankees 56%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

BOS NYY

Game Markets

BOS @ NYY · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYY to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

NYY F5

45%

Game Total

Over 8.5

33%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

33%

Run Line

NYY -1.5

35%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

30%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

34%

THE READ

NYY projects to outscore BOS by 0.29 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: BOS 3.46, NYY 3.76
  • Payton Tolle (BOS) vs Cam Schlittler (NYY)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
PT

Payton Tolle

BOS SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

87%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

73%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

56%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

22%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

98%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

54%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

58%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

42%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.9 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.9 strikeouts
  • 87% to reach 5+ against NYY
CS

Cam Schlittler

NYY SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

87%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

78%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

65%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

51%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

38%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

77%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

55%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

48%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

34%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.7 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.7 strikeouts
  • 87% to reach 5+ against BOS

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

NYY vs LHP (team)OPS.733K%24.4%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

BOS vs RHP (team)OPS.711K%21.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

NYY BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

BOS BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
BOS 0·NYY 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
BOS 6·NYY 10
16 played · 3 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%NYY
BOS 159 · NYY 175 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-30NYY 16-1 · Blowout
2026-08-29NYY 9-2 · Blowout
2026-08-29BOS 6-0 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
BOS46¢ · 46%
NYY58¢ · 58%
Total 6.5
Over50¢ · 50%
Under55¢ · 55%
Run line ±1.5
BOS -1.5— · —
NYY +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

BOS OFFENSE

.277L15 team wOBA
-39 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

NYY OFFENSE

.308L15 team wOBA
-8 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT61° · 5mph out to RF
YANKEE STADIUM
112HR
HR factor1.12 · +
Runs factor1.04 · neutral
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Short porch — LH HR heaven.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
61°F
Wind5 mph out to RF
Humidity86%
Rain1%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

YANKEES 56%

Mean score sim 3.5–3.8 · projected total 7.2 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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