TEXASTEX
80-81 · +2 AL WEST · W1 · 5-5 L10
@SUN 3:10 PM ETMIN HOME PARK
76-85 · +3 AL CENTRAL · L1 · 6-4 L10
MINNESOTAMIN
Weather
62°F · 2mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
MacKenzie Gore
LHP · TEXPROBABLE
STUFF+98
ERA
4.59
IP
170.2
K/9
9.2
BB/9
3.7
WHIP
1.34
L5 STARTS5.97 ERA · 8.8% K · 13.7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
45%
21%
10%
10%
9%
4-Seam FastballCurveballChangeupSliderCutterSinker
Dean Kremer
RHP · MINPROBABLE
STUFF+88
ERA
4.97
IP
83.1
K/9
8.9
BB/9
3.1
WHIP
1.20
L5 STARTS4.46 ERA · 23.5% K · 9.8% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
39%
21%
Split-Finger4-Seam Fastball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRangers 50%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

TEX MIN

Game Markets

TEX @ MIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TEX to win

50%

1st 5 Innings

MIN F5

40%

Game Total

Over 8.5

46%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

49%

Run Line

MIN -1.5

32%

Team Total

TEX Over 4.5

42%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

38%

THE READ

TEX projects to outscore MIN by 0.34 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: TEX 4.39, MIN 4.05
  • MacKenzie Gore (TEX) vs Dean Kremer (MIN)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
MG

MacKenzie Gore

TEX SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

19%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

2%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

33%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

21%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
  • 39% to reach 5+ against MIN
DK

Dean Kremer

MIN SP · vs. TEX

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

65%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

8%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

76%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

31%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

53%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

38%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
  • 65% to reach 5+ against TEX

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

MACKENZIE GORE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIN hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%25.1%OPS-against.709
vs Left-handedK%18.6%OPS-against.745
MIN vs RHP (team)OPS.737K%20.7%

DEAN KREMER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TEX hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%27.6%OPS-against.632
vs Left-handedK%20.5%OPS-against.615
TEX vs LHP (team)OPS.762K%23.9%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

MIN BATTERS vs MACKENZIE GORE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

TEX BATTERS vs DEAN KREMER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
TEX 1·MIN 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
TEX 1·MIN 4
5 played · 14 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
55%MIN
TEX 51 · MIN 63 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-26TEX 6-2
2026-09-26MIN 10-2 · Blowout
2026-06-18MIN 9-3 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
TEX56¢ · 56%
MIN48¢ · 48%
Total 7.5
Over53¢ · 53%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
TEX -1.5— · —
MIN +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→8→7.5→8→7.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

TEX OFFENSE

.290L15 team wOBA
-26 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

MIN OFFENSE

.283L15 team wOBA
-33 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT62° · 2mph out to LF
TARGET FIELD
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor0.98 · neutral
Doubles factor1.05 · +

Neutral.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
62°F
Wind2 mph out to LF
Humidity91%
Rain1%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO