MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Zack Wheeler · Over 5.5 6+ Ks
elite swing-and-miss stuff
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
TB @ PHI · full-game reads
Moneyline
PHI to win
64%
1st 5 Innings
PHI F5
55%
Game Total
Over 8.5
44%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
47%
Run Line
PHI -1.5
46%
Team Total
TB Over 4.5
31%
Team Total
PHI Over 4.5
48%
THE READ
PHI projects to outscore TB by 1.14 runs across 5,000 trials.
TB SP · vs. PHI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
100%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
77%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
80%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
69%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
PHI SP · vs. TB
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
93%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
84%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
71%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
56%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
37%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
97%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
52%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
47%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
32%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.8 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TB hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
HR-friendly.
Wind in from CF · HR headwind.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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