BETFLYAISIGN IN
ST. LOUISSTL
77-85 · +4 NL CENTRAL · L4 · 2-8 L10
@SUN 3:10 PM ETMIL HOME PARK
103-59 · +1 NL CENTRAL · W5 · 8-2 L10
MILWAUKEEMIL
Weather
—
Home plate ump
Derek Thomas K-1.1%
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-3 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Andre Pallante
RHP · STLPROBABLE
STUFF+98
ERA
3.83
IP
162.0
K/9
6.1
BB/9
2.8
WHIP
1.27
L5 STARTS5.19 ERA · 11.3% K · 7.8% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
30%
30%
19%
18%
4-Seam FastballSliderSinkerCurveball
Jacob Misiorowski
RHP · MILPROBABLE
STUFF+126
ERA
1.80
IP
174.2
K/9
13.0
BB/9
2.3
WHIP
0.80
L5 STARTS2.33 ERA · 31.9% K · 9.6% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
63%
14%
11%
10%
4-Seam FastballCutterCurveballSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS9 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Jackson Chourio · Under 2.5 <3 Total Bases

platoon split + park combine for TB ceiling

-120 BetMGM55% book76% +21pp

Andre Pallante · Over 15.5 16+ Outs

starter going deep into a manageable lineup

+115 DraftKings47% book65% +19pp

Jake Bauers · Over 0.5 1+ Runs

top-of-order scoring spot vs hittable opp

+125 BetMGM44% book59% +14pp

Brice Turang · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases

power matchup vs Pallante

+106 Caesars49% book62% +13pp

Brice Turang · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs

form + position drive the RBI projection

+235 DraftKings30% book41% +11pp

Andre Pallante · Over 3.5 4+ Ks

strikeout machine on the bump

-150 Fanatics60% book70% +10pp

Nolan Gorman · Over 0.5 1+ Hits

lineup spot + form pushes Over

+160 BetMGM38% book48% +9pp

Cooper Pratt · Over 0.5 1+ Hits

lineup spot + form pushes Over

-124 BetRivers55% book61% +6pp

David Hamilton · Over 0.5 1+ Hits

L30 contact rate + matchup

-105 BetOnline.51% book57% +6pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBrewers 81%

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

STL MIL

Game Markets

STL @ MIL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIL to win

81%

1st 5 Innings

MIL F5

72%

Game Total

Over 8.5

36%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

44%

Run Line

MIL -1.5

65%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

14%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

53%

THE READ

MIL projects to outscore STL by 3.05 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: STL 2.20, MIL 5.24
  • Andre Pallante (STL) vs Jacob Misiorowski (MIL)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
AP

Andre Pallante

STL SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

88%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

23%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

73%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

59%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.4 strikeouts
  • 25% to reach 5+ against MIL
JM

Jacob Misiorowski

MIL SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

86%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

75%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

61%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

33%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

41%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

15%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

13%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

7%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.4 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.4 strikeouts
  • 86% to reach 5+ against STL
JC

Jackson Chourio

MIL · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 21% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Andre Pallante
JB

Jake Bauers

MIL · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Andre Pallante
GM

Garrett Mitchell

MIL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 36% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Andre Pallante
GS

Gary Sánchez

MIL · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Andre Pallante
BT

Brice Turang

MIL · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Andre Pallante
JW

Jordan Walker

STL · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Jacob Misiorowski
CP

Cooper Pratt

MIL · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Andre Pallante
CY

Christian Yelich

MIL · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Andre Pallante
LB

Leo Bernal

STL · bats S · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 11% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats S
  • Facing Jacob Misiorowski
SF

Sal Frelick

MIL · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 28% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Andre Pallante
NG

Nolan Gorman

STL · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

42%

Hits

2+ hits

9%

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 42%.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jacob Misiorowski
DH

David Hamilton

MIL · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Facing Andre Pallante
IH

Iván Herrera

STL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 57%.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Jacob Misiorowski
NC

Nathan Church

STL · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

15%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 57%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Jacob Misiorowski
TS

Thomas Saggese

STL · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

21%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

15%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 57%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Jacob Misiorowski
JF

José Fermín

STL · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

47%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

21%

Total Bases

3+ bases

9%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

16%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 47% against 57%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jacob Misiorowski
CP

César Prieto

STL · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

40%

Hits

2+ hits

8%

Total Bases

2+ bases

18%

Total Bases

3+ bases

9%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

13%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 40% against 57%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jacob Misiorowski
PP

Pedro Pagés

STL · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

38%

Hits

2+ hits

6%

Total Bases

2+ bases

15%

Total Bases

3+ bases

8%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

12%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 38% against 57%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jacob Misiorowski
— SPLITS THAT MATTER

ANDRE PALLANTE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%17.1%OPS-against.671
vs Left-handedK%15.5%OPS-against.687
MIL vs RHP (team)OPS.759K%22.3%

JACOB MISIOROWSKI SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%29.8%OPS-against.582
vs Left-handedK%44.5%OPS-against.378
STL vs RHP (team)OPS.688K%21.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

MIL BATTERS vs ANDRE PALLANTE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

STL BATTERS vs JACOB MISIOROWSKI

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
STL 0·MIL 3
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
STL 3·MIL 11
14 played · 5 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%STL
STL 153 · MIL 140 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-27MIL 6-4
2026-09-26MIL 3-2 · One-run game
2026-09-25MIL 8-4
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
STL37¢ · 37%
MIL67¢ · 67%
Total 7
Over54¢ · 54%
Under50¢ · 50%
Run line ±1.5
STL -1.5— · —
MIL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7→7.5→7last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

STL OFFENSE

.256L15 team wOBA
-60 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

MIL OFFENSE

.331L15 team wOBA
+15 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT
AMERICAN FAMILY FIELD
108HR
HR factor1.08 · +
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

HR-friendly with roof closed.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH

Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE
THOMAS
Called K rate-1.1% vs avg
Runs per 9—
Games this yr82

Hitter-friendly zone · slight edge to batter props.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

BREWERS 81%

Mean score sim 2.2–5.2 · projected total 7.4 runs · built on locked lineups

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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