BETFLYAISIGN IN
PITTSBURGHPIT
81-80 · +3 NL CENTRAL · L2 · 6-4 L10
@SUN 3:10 PM ETDET HOME PARK
76-85 · +4 AL CENTRAL · W2 · 4-6 L10
DETROITDET
Weather
75°F · 10mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-2 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Jared Jones
RHP · PITPROBABLE
STUFF+101
ERA
3.87
IP
97.2
K/9
10.9
BB/9
2.9
WHIP
1.12
L5 STARTS1.85 ERA · 36.3% K · 4.4% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
38%
33%
18%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeup
River Ryan
RHP · DETPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
0.00
IP
3.0
K/9
9.0
BB/9
3.0
WHIP
1.00
L5 STARTS0.00 ERA · 25% K · 8.3% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETTigers 51%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

PIT DET

Game Markets

PIT @ DET · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PIT to win

49%

1st 5 Innings

DET F5

38%

Game Total

Over 8.5

40%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

40%

Run Line

DET -1.5

33%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

DET Over 4.5

35%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 7.87 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: PIT 4.05, DET 3.82
  • Jared Jones (PIT) vs River Ryan (DET)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JJ

Jared Jones

PIT SP · vs. DET

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

76%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

60%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

16%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

37%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

9%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

30%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

18%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.2 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.2 strikeouts
  • 76% to reach 5+ against DET
RR

River Ryan

DET SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

10%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

25%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

14%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
  • 26% to reach 5+ against PIT

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

JARED JONES SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how DET hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%28.3%OPS-against.607
vs Left-handedK%30.1%OPS-against.683
DET vs RHP (team)OPS.725K%22.6%

RIVER RYAN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%33.3%OPS-against.166
vs Left-handedK%22.2%OPS-against.111
PIT vs RHP (team)OPS.751K%23.5%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

DET BATTERS vs JARED JONES

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

PIT BATTERS vs RIVER RYAN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
PIT 0·DET 2
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
PIT 5·DET 3
8 played · 11 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%DET
PIT 58 · DET 64 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-26DET 4-3 · One-run game
2026-09-25DET 8-7 · Slugfest
2026-08-19PIT 4-3 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
PIT56¢ · 56%
DET48¢ · 48%
Total 8
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
PIT -1.5— · —
DET +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT9→8→8.5→7.5→8.5→7.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

PIT OFFENSE

.323L15 team wOBA
+7 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

DET OFFENSE

.363L15 team wOBA
+47 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6
— ENVIRONMENT75° · 10mph out to CF
COMERICA PARK
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.97 · neutral
Doubles factor1.08 · +

Deep LC/RC. Suppresses HR.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
75°F
Wind10 mph out to CF
Humidity35%
Rain0%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO