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NEW YORKNYM
74-87 · +5 NL EAST · W1 · 5-5 L10
@SUN 1:05 PM ETWSH HOME PARK
76-85 · +4 NL EAST · L1 · 6-4 L10
WASHINGTONWSH
Weather
60°F · 9mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Sean Manaea
LHP · NYMPROBABLE
STUFF+104
ERA
4.67
IP
144.2
K/9
8.8
BB/9
2.7
WHIP
1.30
L5 STARTS6.45 ERA · 19.8% K · 3.3% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
35%
32%
20%
9%
4-Seam FastballSweeperSinkerCutterChangeup
DJ Herz
LHP · WSHPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
9.00
IP
4.0
K/9
9.0
BB/9
4.5
WHIP
1.75
L5 STARTS9.00 ERA · 21.1% K · 10.5% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETNationals 54%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

NYM WSH

Game Markets

NYM @ WSH · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

WSH to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

WSH F5

47%

Game Total

Over 8.5

58%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

58%

Run Line

WSH -1.5

39%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

48%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

52%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 9.93 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: NYM 4.86, WSH 5.07
  • Sean Manaea (NYM) vs DJ Herz (WSH)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
SM

Sean Manaea

NYM SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

63%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

6%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

87%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

79%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

68%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.2 strikeouts
  • 63% to reach 5+ against WSH
DH

DJ Herz

WSH SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

21%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

4%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

37%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

25%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
  • 36% to reach 5+ against NYM

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

SEAN MANAEA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how WSH hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%19.5%OPS-against.837
vs Left-handedK%29.4%OPS-against.692
WSH vs LHP (team)OPS.770K%23.8%

DJ HERZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%23.5%OPS-against.114
vs Left-handedK%0.0%OPS-against.000
NYM vs LHP (team)OPS.683K%22.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

WSH BATTERS vs SEAN MANAEA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

NYM BATTERS vs DJ HERZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
NYM 1·WSH 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
NYM 8·WSH 9
17 played · 2 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
55%WSH
NYM 178 · WSH 215 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-26NYM 7-1 · Blowout
2026-09-25WSH 7-6 · One-run game
2026-08-16NYM 4-3 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
NYM52¢ · 52%
WSH51¢ · 51%
Total 8.5
Over50¢ · 50%
Under55¢ · 55%
Run line ±1.5
NYM -1.5— · —
WSH +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→8→8.5→8→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

NYM OFFENSE

.306L15 team wOBA
-10 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

WSH OFFENSE

.281L15 team wOBA
-35 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT60° · 9mph out to RF
NATIONALS PARK
102HR
HR factor1.02 · neutral
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Neutral.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
60°F
Wind9 mph out to RF
Humidity81%
Rain27%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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