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HOUSTONHOU
80-81 · +1 AL WEST · W1 · 4-6 L10
@SUN 3:05 PM ETATH HOME PARK
64-97 · +4 AL WEST · L1 · 3-7 L10
ATH
Weather
—
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 2-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Peter Lambert
RHP · HOUPROBABLE
STUFF+91
ERA
3.87
IP
153.2
K/9
9.0
BB/9
3.5
WHIP
1.26
L5 STARTS5.14 ERA · 24.6% K · 7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
32%
22%
17%
10%
9%
4-Seam FastballChangeupSliderCutterSinkerSweeper
Seth Johnson
RHP · ATHPROBABLE
STUFF+108
ERA
6.19
IP
32.0
K/9
10.7
BB/9
5.1
WHIP
1.69
L5 STARTS5.42 ERA · 21.1% K · 2.6% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
42%
35%
4-Seam FastballSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETAstros 53%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

HOU ATH

Game Markets

HOU @ ATH · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

HOU to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

ATH F5

42%

Game Total

Over 8.5

42%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

47%

Run Line

ATH -1.5

30%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

42%

Team Total

ATH Over 4.5

34%

THE READ

HOU projects to outscore ATH by 0.57 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: HOU 4.31, ATH 3.73
  • Peter Lambert (HOU) vs Seth Johnson (ATH)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
PL

Peter Lambert

HOU SP · vs. ATH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

46%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

8%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

43%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

29%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
  • 46% to reach 5+ against ATH
SJ

Seth Johnson

ATH SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

56%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

44%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

13%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

41%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

27%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.0 strikeouts
  • 56% to reach 5+ against HOU

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

PETER LAMBERT SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATH hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%24.7%OPS-against.712
vs Left-handedK%22.3%OPS-against.637
ATH vs RHP (team)OPS.720K%21.6%

SETH JOHNSON SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how HOU hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%30.0%OPS-against.640
vs Left-handedK%20.0%OPS-against.782
HOU vs RHP (team)OPS.738K%22.2%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

ATH BATTERS vs PETER LAMBERT

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

HOU BATTERS vs SETH JOHNSON

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
HOU 2·ATH 1
4-game set · gm 4 of 4
2026 SEASON
HOU 6·ATH 6
12 played · 7 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
90%HOU
HOU 130 · ATH 14 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-27HOU 13-2 · Blowout
2026-09-26ATH 6-5 · One-run game
2026-09-25HOU 7-5
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

HOU OFFENSE

.333L15 team wOBA
+17 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

ATH OFFENSE

.301L15 team wOBA
-15 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT

Park factors unavailable.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH

Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO