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COL vs CWS

Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Sox

Sunday, September 27, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the COL @ CWS simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

COLORADOCOL
0·0
CHICAGOCWS
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

COL DUGOUTCWS DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

COL Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB94.8
FB95
CV78.5
FB92.7
CV80.1

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

COL Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · COL LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CWS to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CWS -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CWS

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CWS wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYCOL Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 16 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

COL STARTER

Kyle Freeland

SHAKY
3.5
PROJECTED Ks
—
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 24% · 13% whiffCurveball · 22% · 34% whiffCutter · 21% · 18% whiff

CWS STARTER

Anthony Kay

SHAKY
3.3
PROJECTED Ks
—
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sweeper · 23% · 34% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 22% · 19% whiffSinker · 18% · 16% whiff

Anthony Kay projects 3.3 Ks vs Kyle Freeland projects 3.5 Ks

COL LINEUP

  1. 1Jake McCarthy (L)hit 72% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    35%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Connor Norby (R)hit 64% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Hunter Goodman (R)hit 67% · HR 27%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    27%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    35%

    3+ BASES

    29%

    4+ BASES

    43%

    RBI

    22%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Cole Carrigg (S)hit 67% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Kyle Karros (R)hit 64% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Adael Amador (S)hit 59% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Troy Johnston (L)hit 63% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Jordan Beck (R)hit 57% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Ezequiel Tovar (R)hit 59% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

CWS LINEUP

  1. 1Randal Grichuk (R)hit 79% · HR 29%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    79%

    1+ HIT

    45%

    2+ HITS

    29%

    HOME RUN

    61%

    2+ BASES

    46%

    3+ BASES

    36%

    4+ BASES

    43%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    56%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Tommy Pham (R)hit 62% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Munetaka Murakami (L)hit 67% · HR 31%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    31%

    HOME RUN

    49%

    2+ BASES

    36%

    3+ BASES

    32%

    4+ BASES

    43%

    RBI

    22%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Brenton Doyle (R)hit 65% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Sam Antonacci (L)hit 68% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Braden Montgomery (S)hit 60% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Colson Montgomery (L)hit 60% · HR 22%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Luisangel Acuña (R)hit 58% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Drew Romo (S)hit 47% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    47%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

COL CWS

Game Markets

COL @ CWS · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CWS to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

CWS F5

45%

Game Total

Over 8.5

57%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

57%

Run Line

CWS -1.5

37%

Team Total

COL Over 4.5

48%

Team Total

CWS Over 4.5

50%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 9.67 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: COL 4.78, CWS 4.89
  • Kyle Freeland (COL) vs Anthony Kay (CWS)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
KF

Kyle Freeland

COL SP · vs. CWS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

47%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

26%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

55%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

43%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
  • 27% to reach 5+ against CWS
AK

Anthony Kay

CWS SP · vs. COL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

9%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

0%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

44%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

30%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
  • 22% to reach 5+ against COL
MM

Munetaka Murakami

CWS · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

31%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

34%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

22%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Kyle Freeland
RG

Randal Grichuk

CWS · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

29%

Hits

1+ hits

83%

Hits

2+ hits

47%

Total Bases

2+ bases

65%

Total Bases

3+ bases

49%

Total Bases

4+ bases

38%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 38% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kyle Freeland
HG

Hunter Goodman

COL · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

37%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Anthony Kay
CM

Colson Montgomery

CWS · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kyle Freeland
JM

Jake McCarthy

COL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 37% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Anthony Kay
CC

Cole Carrigg

COL · bats S · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Anthony Kay
SA

Sam Antonacci

CWS · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Kyle Freeland
KK

Kyle Karros

COL · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Anthony Kay
CN

Connor Norby

COL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Anthony Kay
BD

Brenton Doyle

CWS · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Kyle Freeland
TJ

Troy Johnston

COL · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Anthony Kay
TP

Tommy Pham

CWS · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kyle Freeland
BM

Braden Montgomery

CWS · bats S · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 6 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kyle Freeland
AA

Adael Amador

COL · bats S · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 31% against 32%.

  • Batting 6 · bats S
  • Facing Anthony Kay
ET

Ezequiel Tovar

COL · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 66%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Anthony Kay
LA

Luisangel Acuña

CWS · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 66%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kyle Freeland
JB

Jordan Beck

COL · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 66%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Anthony Kay
DR

Drew Romo

CWS · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 66%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kyle Freeland

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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