CLEVELANDCLE
85-76 · +1 AL CENTRAL · W3 · 9-1 L10
@SUN 3:10 PM ETKC HOME PARK
68-93 · +5 AL CENTRAL · L3 · 2-8 L10
KANSAS CITYKC
Weather
78°F · 3mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 2-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Parker Messick
LHP · CLEPROBABLE
STUFF+96
ERA
2.55
IP
183.1
K/9
9.4
BB/9
2.4
WHIP
1.04
L5 STARTS2.88 ERA · 29.4% K · 5.9% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
34%
24%
17%
11%
4-Seam FastballChangeupSinkerCurveballCutterSlider
Daniel Lynch IV
LHP · KCPROBABLE
STUFF+107
ERA
4.13
IP
80.2
K/9
6.0
BB/9
2.9
WHIP
1.14
L5 STARTS7.33 ERA · 11.1% K · 9.1% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
30%
24%
24%
17%
SinkerSliderChangeup4-Seam Fastball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETGuardians 61%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

CLE KC

Game Markets

CLE @ KC · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

61%

1st 5 Innings

KC F5

31%

Game Total

Over 8.5

45%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

49%

Run Line

KC -1.5

23%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

49%

Team Total

KC Over 4.5

31%

THE READ

CLE projects to outscore KC by 1.32 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CLE 4.87, KC 3.55
  • Parker Messick (CLE) vs Daniel Lynch IV (KC)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
PM

Parker Messick

CLE SP · vs. KC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

56%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

61%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

4%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

44%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

29%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.9 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.9 strikeouts
  • 56% to reach 5+ against KC
DI

Daniel Lynch IV

KC SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

92%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

48%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

71%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

57%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
  • 27% to reach 5+ against CLE

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

PARKER MESSICK SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how KC hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%26.9%OPS-against.597
vs Left-handedK%24.0%OPS-against.670
KC vs LHP (team)OPS.697K%21.8%

DANIEL LYNCH IV SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CLE hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%14.6%OPS-against.795
vs Left-handedK%19.0%OPS-against.433
CLE vs LHP (team)OPS.673K%21.4%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

KC BATTERS vs PARKER MESSICK

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

CLE BATTERS vs DANIEL LYNCH IV

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
CLE 2·KC 0
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
CLE 9·KC 5
14 played · 5 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
57%CLE
CLE 186 · KC 142 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-26CLE 11-5 · Blowout
2026-09-25CLE 12-9 · Slugfest
2026-08-30CLE 11-1 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
CLE98¢ · 98%
KC8¢ · 8%
Total 12.5
Over47¢ · 47%
Under60¢ · 60%
Run line ±1.5
CLE -1.5— · —
KC +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→8→8.5→12.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

CLE OFFENSE

.334L15 team wOBA
+18 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

KC OFFENSE

.308L15 team wOBA
-8 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT78° · 3mph out to LF
KAUFFMAN STADIUM
94HR
HR factor0.94 · below avg
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor1.08 · +

Big OF — triples up, HR down.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
78°F
Wind3 mph out to LF
Humidity61%
Rain3%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO