MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Max Scherzer · Under 14.5 <15 Outs
high-pitch-count grinder in a tough matchup
Brandon Williamson · Over 14.5 15+ Outs
long-leash spot vs softer opp
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
CIN @ TOR · full-game reads
Moneyline
TOR to win
57%
1st 5 Innings
TOR F5
50%
Game Total
Over 8.5
63%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
68%
Run Line
TOR -1.5
42%
Team Total
CIN Over 4.5
49%
Team Total
TOR Over 4.5
57%
THE READ
TOR projects to outscore CIN by 0.61 runs across 5,000 trials.
CIN SP · vs. TOR
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
46%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
15%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
63%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
50%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
TOR SP · vs. CIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
70%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
22%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
62%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
48%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TOR hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CIN hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Slight HR boost.
Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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