BETFLYAISIGN IN
BALTIMOREBAL
79-82 · +4 AL EAST · L1 · 6-4 L10
@SUN 1:05 PM ETNYY HOME PARK
93-68 · +2 AL EAST · W1 · 5-5 L10
NEW YORKNYY
Weather
64°F · 11mph in from CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Shane Baz
RHP · BALPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
4.11
IP
179.2
K/9
7.7
BB/9
3.2
WHIP
1.35
L5 STARTS4.72 ERA · 15.3% K · 8.9% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
33%
33%
18%
4-Seam FastballCurveballCutterSinkerChangeup
Elmer Rodríguez
RHP · NYYPROBABLE
STUFF+92
ERA
5.40
IP
26.2
K/9
7.1
BB/9
5.4
WHIP
1.58
L5 STARTS5.86 ERA · 17.1% K · 11.4% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
42%
21%
16%
10%
Sinker4-Seam FastballSweeperChangeup
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETYankees 54%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

BAL NYY

Game Markets

BAL @ NYY · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYY to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

NYY F5

45%

Game Total

Over 8.5

50%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

56%

Run Line

NYY -1.5

37%

Team Total

BAL Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

45%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.98 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: BAL 4.39, NYY 4.59
  • Shane Baz (BAL) vs Elmer Rodríguez (NYY)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
SB

Shane Baz

BAL SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

89%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

54%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

69%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

57%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
  • 41% to reach 5+ against NYY
ER

Elmer Rodríguez

NYY SP · vs. BAL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

49%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

38%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

6%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

42%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

29%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
  • 49% to reach 5+ against BAL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

SHANE BAZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%18.6%OPS-against.622
vs Left-handedK%21.0%OPS-against.785
NYY vs RHP (team)OPS.714K%24.8%

ELMER RODRÍGUEZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BAL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%19.7%OPS-against.711
vs Left-handedK%13.0%OPS-against.757
BAL vs RHP (team)OPS.715K%24.3%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

NYY BATTERS vs SHANE BAZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

BAL BATTERS vs ELMER RODRÍGUEZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
BAL 1·NYY 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
BAL 5·NYY 11
16 played · 3 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
56%NYY
BAL 156 · NYY 196 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-25NYY 6-3
2026-09-25BAL 10-2 · Blowout
2026-08-20NYY 6-1
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
BAL47¢ · 47%
NYY57¢ · 57%
Total 8
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
BAL -1.5— · —
NYY +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT9→8→7.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

BAL OFFENSE

.309L15 team wOBA
-7 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

NYY OFFENSE

.308L15 team wOBA
-8 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT64° · 11mph in from CF
YANKEE STADIUM
112HR
HR factor1.12 · +
Runs factor1.04 · neutral
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Short porch — LH HR heaven.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
64°F
Wind11 mph in from CF
Humidity92%
Rain29%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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