MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
JR Ritchie · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
punch-out artist with the right matchup
Mike Yastrzemski · Over 0.5 1+ Hits
hot stretch + soft matchup
Austin Riley · Over 0.5 1+ Hits
barrel% surging, sees enough PAs
Janson Junk · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
K-monster arsenal
Austin Riley · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs
cleanup vs vulnerable arm
Matt Olson · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs
RBI specialist hitting in front of traffic
Sean Murphy · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
platoon split + park combine for TB ceiling
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
ATL @ MIA · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIA to win
52%
1st 5 Innings
MIA F5
46%
Game Total
Over 8.5
34%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
43%
Run Line
MIA -1.5
34%
Team Total
ATL Over 4.5
32%
Team Total
MIA Over 4.5
33%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 7.27 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
ATL SP · vs. MIA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
56%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
35%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
19%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
75%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
10%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
42%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
28%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.
MIA SP · vs. ATL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
33%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
7%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
38%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
25%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
ATL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIA · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIA · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ATL · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIA · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIA · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 31% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ATL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 22% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ATL · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 21% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIA · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 53%.
ATL · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.
ATL · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.
ATL · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 54%.
ATL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 57%.
ATL · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
23%
Total Bases
3+ bases
11%
Total Bases
4+ bases
6%
RBIs
1+ RBI
18%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 57%.
MIA · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
49%
Hits
2+ hits
12%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 57%.
MIA · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
47%
Hits
2+ hits
11%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 22% against 25%.
MIA · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
48%
Hits
2+ hits
11%
Total Bases
2+ bases
24%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 57%.
MIA · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
44%
Hits
2+ hits
9%
Total Bases
2+ bases
21%
Total Bases
3+ bases
11%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
18%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 44% against 57%.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIA hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Cavernous OF.
Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.
Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.
Mean score sim 3.6–3.7 · projected total 7.3 runs · built on locked lineups
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