ARIZONAARI
—
@2026-09-27SD HOME PARK
90-71 · +2 NL WEST · W1 · 8-2 L10
SAN DIEGOSD
Weather
79°F · 7mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETDiamondbacks 59%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

ARI SD

Game Markets

ARI @ SD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

ARI to win

59%

1st 5 Innings

SD F5

33%

Game Total

Over 8.5

44%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

49%

Run Line

SD -1.5

25%

Team Total

ARI Over 4.5

48%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

32%

THE READ

ARI projects to outscore SD by 1.15 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: ARI 4.76, SD 3.61
  • Michael Soroka (ARI) vs Randy Vásquez (SD)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
MS

Michael Soroka

ARI SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

49%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

65%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

35%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

49%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

35%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
  • 49% to reach 5+ against SD
RV

Randy Vásquez

SD SP · vs. ARI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

71%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

25%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

61%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

46%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.6 strikeouts
  • 12% to reach 5+ against ARI

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

SD vs LHP (team)OPS.704K%21.7%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ARI hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

ARI vs RHP (team)OPS.698K%20.0%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

SD BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

ARI BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
ARI 0·SD 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
ARI 0·SD 6
14 played · 5 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
100%SD
ARI 0 · SD 162 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-27SD 10-7 · Slugfest
2026-09-26AZ 11-4 · Blowout
2026-08-07SD 5-1
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
ARI49¢ · 49%
SD56¢ · 56%
Total 8
Over52¢ · 52%
Under57¢ · 57%
Run line ±1.5
ARI -1.5— · —
SD +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→8.5→8→8.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

ARI OFFENSE

.360L15 team wOBA
+44 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6

SD OFFENSE

.357L15 team wOBA
+41 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6
— ENVIRONMENT79° · 7mph out to RF
PETCO PARK
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Marine layer suppresses HR.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
79°F
Wind7 mph out to RF
Humidity64%
Rain4%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

DIAMONDBACKS 59%

Mean score sim 4.8–3.6 · projected total 8.4 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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