AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDTB vs PHI
Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies
Saturday, September 26, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the TB @ PHI simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
Yandy Díaz (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
Yandy Díaz in this spot
BATTER PROPS · YANDY DÍAZ
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
PHI to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
PHI -1.5
TEAM TOTAL PHI
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
PHI wins F5
event 1 / 79 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
TB STARTER
Griffin Jax
GOOD- 5.7
- PROJECTED Ks
- 113
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
PHI STARTER
Aaron Nola
GOOD- 4.5
- PROJECTED Ks
- 107
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.
Aaron Nola grades good (Pitching+ 107) vs Griffin Jax grades good (Pitching+ 113)
TB LINEUP
1Yandy Díaz (R)hit 68% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
2Jonathan Aranda (L)hit 64% · HR 19%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
21%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
3Liam Hicks (L)hit 62% · HR 13%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
4Junior Caminero (R)hit 65% · HR 27%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
27%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
33%
3+ BASES
28%
4+ BASES
40%
RBI
20%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
5Victor Mesa Jr. (L)hit 56% · HR 19%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
6Richie Palacios (L)hit 52% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
7Jonny DeLuca (R)hit 52% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
25%
SCORES A RUN
8Cedric Mullins (L)hit 44% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
44%
1+ HIT
10%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
20%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
9Taylor Walls (S)hit 43% · HR 3%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
43%
1+ HIT
10%
2+ HITS
3%
HOME RUN
16%
2+ BASES
7%
3+ BASES
4%
4+ BASES
15%
RBI
3%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
PHI LINEUP
1Trea Turner (R)hit 56% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
2Kyle Schwarber (L)hit 53% · HR 24%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
24%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
3Bryce Harper (L)hit 63% · HR 23%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
23%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
24%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
4Alec Bohm (R)hit 54% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
24%
SCORES A RUN
5Bryson Stott (L)hit 52% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
6Bryan De La Cruz (R)hit 53% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
7Brandon Marsh (L)hit 52% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
24%
SCORES A RUN
8J.T. Realmuto (R)hit 44% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
44%
1+ HIT
10%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
21%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
18%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
22%
SCORES A RUN
9Justin Crawford (L)hit 51% · HR 4%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
4%
HOME RUN
23%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
5%
4+ BASES
16%
RBI
4%
2+ RBIs
25%
SCORES A RUN
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
TB @ PHI · full-game reads
Moneyline
TB to win
54%
1st 5 Innings
PHI F5
37%
Game Total
Over 8.5
34%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
40%
Run Line
PHI -1.5
28%
Team Total
TB Over 4.5
37%
Team Total
PHI Over 4.5
28%
THE READ
TB projects to outscore PHI by 0.56 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: TB 3.92, PHI 3.36
- Griffin Jax (TB) vs Aaron Nola (PHI)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Griffin Jax
TB SP · vs. PHI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
72%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
53%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
33%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
8%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
54%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
3%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
35%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
21%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.7 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.7 strikeouts
- 72% to reach 5+ against PHI
Aaron Nola
PHI SP · vs. TB
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
47%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
29%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
64%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
16%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
45%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
31%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
- 47% to reach 5+ against TB
Junior Caminero
TB · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Aaron Nola
Kyle Schwarber
PHI · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Griffin Jax
Bryce Harper
PHI · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Griffin Jax
Yandy Díaz
TB · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Aaron Nola
Jonathan Aranda
TB · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Aaron Nola
Victor Mesa Jr.
TB · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Aaron Nola
Liam Hicks
TB · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Aaron Nola
Bryan De La Cruz
PHI · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Griffin Jax
Trea Turner
PHI · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Griffin Jax
Alec Bohm
PHI · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Griffin Jax
Jonny DeLuca
TB · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 55%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Aaron Nola
Richie Palacios
TB · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 55%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Aaron Nola
Bryson Stott
PHI · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 57%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Griffin Jax
Brandon Marsh
PHI · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 57%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Griffin Jax
Justin Crawford
PHI · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
24%
Total Bases
3+ bases
11%
Total Bases
4+ bases
6%
RBIs
1+ RBI
16%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
4%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 57%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Griffin Jax
Cedric Mullins
TB · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
46%
Hits
2+ hits
10%
Total Bases
2+ bases
21%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 21% against 25%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Aaron Nola
J.T. Realmuto
PHI · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
46%
Hits
2+ hits
11%
Total Bases
2+ bases
22%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
19%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 46% against 57%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Griffin Jax
Taylor Walls
TB · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
3%
Hits
1+ hits
45%
Hits
2+ hits
10%
Total Bases
2+ bases
18%
Total Bases
3+ bases
7%
Total Bases
4+ bases
4%
RBIs
1+ RBI
15%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
3%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 45% against 57%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Aaron Nola
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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