Not cataloged
MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Dustin May · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
elite swing-and-miss stuff
Dustin May · Over 2.5 3+ Ks
K-monster arsenal
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
STL @ MIL · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIL to win
59%
1st 5 Innings
MIL F5
47%
Game Total
Over 8.5
43%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
46%
Run Line
MIL -1.5
39%
Team Total
STL Over 4.5
34%
Team Total
MIL Over 4.5
41%
THE READ
MIL projects to outscore STL by 0.54 runs across 5,000 trials.
STL SP · vs. MIL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
56%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
37%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
21%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
4%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
78%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
26%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
57%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
42%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.9 Ks.
MIL SP · vs. STL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
28%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
24%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
6%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
32%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
21%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIL hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
HR-friendly with roof closed.
Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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