BETFLYAISIGN IN

AI MODEL READ

PARTIAL LINEUPS

PIT vs DET

Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers

Saturday, September 26, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the PIT @ DET simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

PITTSBURGHPIT
0·0
DETROITDET
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PIT DUGOUTDET DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Ryan O'Hearn (L) vs HP

FB95.7
SL84

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Ryan O'Hearn in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · RYAN O'HEARN

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

DET to win

53%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

DET -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL DET

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

DET wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYRyan O'Hearn at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 88 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEDET
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

PIT STARTER

Kirby Yates

SHAKY
5.7
PROJECTED Ks
85
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 66% · 27% whiffSplit-Finger · 32% · 33% whiff

DET STARTER

Justin Verlander

4.3
PROJECTED Ks
—
PITCHING+

Justin Verlander projects 4.3 Ks vs Kirby Yates grades poor (Pitching+ 85)

PIT LINEUP

  1. 1Ryan O'Hearn (L)hit 63% · HR 15%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Brandon Lowe (L)hit 65% · HR 25%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    25%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    27%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bryan Reynolds (S)hit 63% · HR 13%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Oneil Cruz (L)hit 66% · HR 23%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Konnor Griffin (R)hit 56% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Spencer Horwitz (L)hit 54% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Ronny Simon (S)hit 47% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    47%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Jacob Gonzalez (L)hit 51% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Henry Davis (R)hit 40% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    40%

    1+ HIT

    8%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    20%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

DET LINEUP

  1. 1Max Clark (L)hit 61% · HR 7%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Hao-Yu Lee (R)hit 63% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Kevin McGonigle (L)hit 64% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Eduardo Valencia (R)hit 66% · HR 16%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Riley Greene (L)hit 61% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Dillon Dingler (R)hit 58% · HR 16%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Spencer Torkelson (R)hit 51% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Zach McKinstry (L)hit 47% · HR 4%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    47%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    4%

    HOME RUN

    20%

    2+ BASES

    9%

    3+ BASES

    5%

    4+ BASES

    17%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Javier Báez (R)hit 51% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

UPGRADE TO EDGE — $10/mo

II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

PIT DET

Game Markets

PIT @ DET · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

DET to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

DET F5

39%

Game Total

Over 8.5

44%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

46%

Run Line

DET -1.5

34%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

DET Over 4.5

40%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.21 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: PIT 4.08, DET 4.12
  • Kirby Yates (PIT) vs Justin Verlander (DET)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
KY

Kirby Yates

PIT SP · vs. DET

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

69%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

51%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

11%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

44%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

12%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

37%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

25%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.7 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.7 strikeouts
  • 69% to reach 5+ against DET
JV

Justin Verlander

DET SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

32%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

8%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

35%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

22%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
  • 43% to reach 5+ against PIT
BL

Brandon Lowe

PIT · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Justin Verlander
OC

Oneil Cruz

PIT · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Justin Verlander
EV

Eduardo Valencia

DET · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kirby Yates
DD

Dillon Dingler

DET · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Kirby Yates
RG

Riley Greene

DET · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kirby Yates
RO

Ryan O'Hearn

PIT · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Justin Verlander
ST

Spencer Torkelson

DET · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kirby Yates
HL

Hao-Yu Lee

DET · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Kirby Yates
BR

Bryan Reynolds

PIT · bats S · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 3+ bases — 25% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats S
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Justin Verlander
KM

Kevin McGonigle

DET · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Kirby Yates
MC

Max Clark

DET · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kirby Yates
KG

Konnor Griffin

PIT · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Justin Verlander
SH

Spencer Horwitz

PIT · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Justin Verlander
JG

Jacob Gonzalez

PIT · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 60%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Justin Verlander
JB

Javier Báez

DET · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 60%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kirby Yates
HD

Henry Davis

PIT · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

42%

Hits

2+ hits

9%

Total Bases

2+ bases

21%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 10% against 12%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Justin Verlander
RS

Ronny Simon

PIT · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 60%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Facing Justin Verlander
ZM

Zach McKinstry

DET · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

21%

Total Bases

3+ bases

9%

Total Bases

4+ bases

5%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 60%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kirby Yates

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.