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NEW YORKNYM
73-87 · +5 NL EAST · L2 · 4-6 L10
@SAT 12:35 PM ETWSH HOME PARK
76-84 · +4 NL EAST · W3 · 7-3 L10
WASHINGTONWSH
Weather
62°F · 12mph in from CF
Home plate ump
Austin Jones K-1.0%
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Jonah Tong
RHP · NYMPROBABLE
STUFF+97
ERA
4.08
IP
28.2
K/9
9.7
BB/9
4.4
WHIP
1.29
L5 STARTS5.49 ERA · 28% K · 9% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
46%
28%
4-Seam FastballChangeup
Connelly Early
LHP · WSHPROBABLE
STUFF+103
ERA
3.33
IP
94.2
K/9
8.9
BB/9
3.2
WHIP
1.23
L5 STARTS3.49 ERA · 25% K · 7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
35%
20%
18%
11%
8%
4-Seam FastballSinkerChangeupCurveballSliderSweeper
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Jonah Tong · Over 4.5 5+ Ks

K-monster arsenal

+100 FanDuel50% book66% +16pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETMets 54%

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

NYM WSH

Game Markets

NYM @ WSH · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYM to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

WSH F5

41%

Game Total

Over 8.5

54%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

53%

Run Line

WSH -1.5

30%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

50%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

43%

THE READ

NYM projects to outscore WSH by 0.72 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: NYM 5.03, WSH 4.31
  • Jonah Tong (NYM) vs Connelly Early (WSH)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
JT

Jonah Tong

NYM SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

62%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

69%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

29%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

51%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

37%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
  • 62% to reach 5+ against WSH
CE

Connelly Early

WSH SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

22%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

5%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

39%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

26%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.6 strikeouts
  • 29% to reach 5+ against NYM
JS

Juan Soto

NYM · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Connelly Early
FL

Francisco Lindor

NYM · bats S · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats S
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Connelly Early
JW

James Wood

WSH · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Jonah Tong
MV

Mark Vientos

NYM · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Connelly Early
CA

CJ Abrams

WSH · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Jonah Tong
CB

Carson Benge

NYM · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Connelly Early
BB

Bo Bichette

NYM · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Connelly Early
FA

Francisco Alvarez

NYM · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Connelly Early
BB

Brett Baty

NYM · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 3+ bases — 25% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Connelly Early
AO

Abimelec Ortiz

WSH · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jonah Tong
DL

Daylen Lile

WSH · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Jonah Tong
KR

Keibert Ruiz

WSH · bats S · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 8 · bats S
  • Facing Jonah Tong
DC

Dylan Crews

WSH · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Jonah Tong
AE

A.J. Ewing

NYM · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Connelly Early
BH

Brady House

WSH · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Jonah Tong
YM

Yohandy Morales

WSH · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 64%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jonah Tong
RM

Ronny Mauricio

NYM · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 64%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Connelly Early
NN

Nasim Nuñez

WSH · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

3%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

20%

Total Bases

3+ bases

8%

Total Bases

4+ bases

5%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 64%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jonah Tong
— SPLITS THAT MATTER

JONAH TONG SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how WSH hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%21.7%OPS-against.679
vs Left-handedK%22.1%OPS-against.597
WSH vs LHP (team)OPS.772K%23.9%

CONNELLY EARLY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%22.6%OPS-against.771
vs Left-handedK%27.1%OPS-against.589
NYM vs RHP (team)OPS.712K%22.1%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

WSH BATTERS vs JONAH TONG

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

NYM BATTERS vs CONNELLY EARLY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
NYM 0·WSH 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
NYM 7·WSH 9
16 played · 3 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
55%WSH
NYM 177 · WSH 215 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-25WSH 7-6 · One-run game
2026-08-16NYM 4-3 · One-run game
2026-08-15NYM 5-4 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
NYM52¢ · 52%
WSH52¢ · 52%
Total 8.5
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
NYM -1.5— · —
WSH +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

NYM OFFENSE

.296L15 team wOBA
-20 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

WSH OFFENSE

.291L15 team wOBA
-26 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT62° · 12mph in from CF
NATIONALS PARK
102HR
HR factor1.02 · neutral
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Neutral.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
62°F
Wind12 mph in from CF
Humidity71%
Rain22%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE
JONES
Called K rate-1.0% vs avg
Runs per 9—
Games this yr46

Hitter-friendly zone · slight edge to batter props.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

METS 54%

Mean score sim 5.0–4.3 · projected total 9.3 runs · built on locked lineups

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