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AI MODEL READ

PRE-LINEUP

LAD vs SF

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants

Saturday, September 26, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the LAD @ SF simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

LOS ANGELESLAD
0·0
SAN FRANCISCOSF
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

LAD DUGOUTSF DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Mookie Betts (R) vs HP

SL85.2
FB94.5

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Mookie Betts in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · MOOKIE BETTS

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

SF to win

27%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

SF -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL SF

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

SF wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYMookie Betts at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 77 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

Los Angeles D wins

40%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGELAD
LINEUP EDGELAD

LAD STARTER

Blake Snell

ELITE
7.7
PROJECTED Ks
119
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 49% · 24% whiffCurveball · 22% · 43% whiffChangeup · 18% · 45% whiff

SF STARTER

Matt Wilkinson

AVERAGE
2.5
PROJECTED Ks
98
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 58% · 19% whiffChangeup · 23% · 27% whiffSlider · 14% · 13% whiff

Matt Wilkinson grades avg (Pitching+ 98) vs Blake Snell grades elite (Pitching+ 119)

LAD LINEUP

  1. 1Mookie Betts (R)hit 64% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Shohei Ohtanihit 70% · HR 18%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Will Smith (R)hit 65% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Teoscar Hernández (R)hit 64% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Kyle Tucker (L)hit 60% · HR 9%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Miguel Rojas (R)hit 59% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Andy Pageshit 61% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Enrique Hernández (R)hit 51% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Tommy Edman (S)hit 51% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

SF LINEUP

  1. 1Jonah Cox (R)hit 46% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    15%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Turner Hill (L)hit 47% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    47%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    9%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    14%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    19%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Victor Bericoto (R)hit 48% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    19%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Bo Davidsonhit 46% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    20%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    17%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    18%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Brett Harris (R)hit 37% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    37%

    1+ HIT

    7%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    16%

    2+ BASES

    8%

    3+ BASES

    5%

    4+ BASES

    13%

    RBI

    3%

    2+ RBIs

    16%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Andrew Knizner (R)hit 43% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    43%

    1+ HIT

    10%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    18%

    2+ BASES

    9%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    14%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    16%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Shay Whitcomb (R)hit 40% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    40%

    1+ HIT

    8%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    18%

    2+ BASES

    9%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    14%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    17%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Scott Bandura (L)hit 38% · HR 5%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    38%

    1+ HIT

    7%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    16%

    2+ BASES

    8%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    12%

    RBI

    3%

    2+ RBIs

    16%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Christian Koss (R)hit 38% · HR 5%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    38%

    1+ HIT

    7%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    15%

    2+ BASES

    7%

    3+ BASES

    5%

    4+ BASES

    13%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    15%

    SCORES A RUN

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

LAD SF

Game Markets

LAD @ SF · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

LAD to win

73%

1st 5 Innings

SF F5

19%

Game Total

Over 8.5

21%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

29%

Run Line

SF -1.5

13%

Team Total

LAD Over 4.5

39%

Team Total

SF Over 4.5

9%

THE READ

LAD projects to outscore SF by 2.20 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: LAD 4.12, SF 1.93
  • Blake Snell (LAD) vs Matt Wilkinson (SF)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
BS

Blake Snell

LAD SP · vs. SF

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

94%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

85%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

71%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

52%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

34%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

75%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

10%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

15%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

7%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.7 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.7 strikeouts
  • 94% to reach 5+ against SF
MW

Matt Wilkinson

SF SP · vs. LAD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

39%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

13%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

47%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

34%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.5 strikeouts
  • 11% to reach 5+ against LAD
SO

Shohei Ohtani

LAD · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 24% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Matt Wilkinson
TH

Teoscar Hernández

LAD · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 7% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Matt Wilkinson
MB

Mookie Betts

LAD · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Matt Wilkinson
WS

Will Smith

LAD · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 7% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Matt Wilkinson
AP

Andy Pages

LAD · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 11% against 7% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7
  • Facing Matt Wilkinson
KT

Kyle Tucker

LAD · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 11% against 7% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Matt Wilkinson
MR

Miguel Rojas

LAD · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 22% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Matt Wilkinson
EH

Enrique Hernández

LAD · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 9% against 7% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Matt Wilkinson
VB

Victor Bericoto

SF · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 51%.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Blake Snell
TE

Tommy Edman

LAD · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 54%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Matt Wilkinson
TH

Turner Hill

SF · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

15%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 54%.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Blake Snell
JC

Jonah Cox

SF · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

15%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 54%.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Blake Snell
BD

Bo Davidson

SF · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 54%.

  • Batting 4
  • Facing Blake Snell
AK

Andrew Knizner

SF · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

45%

Hits

2+ hits

10%

Total Bases

2+ bases

20%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

14%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 45% against 54%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Blake Snell
SW

Shay Whitcomb

SF · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

41%

Hits

2+ hits

8%

Total Bases

2+ bases

19%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

15%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 41% against 54%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Blake Snell
CK

Christian Koss

SF · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

40%

Hits

2+ hits

8%

Total Bases

2+ bases

16%

Total Bases

3+ bases

8%

Total Bases

4+ bases

5%

RBIs

1+ RBI

13%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 40% against 54%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Blake Snell
SB

Scott Bandura

SF · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

40%

Hits

2+ hits

8%

Total Bases

2+ bases

17%

Total Bases

3+ bases

8%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

13%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 40% against 54%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Blake Snell
BH

Brett Harris

SF · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

39%

Hits

2+ hits

7%

Total Bases

2+ bases

17%

Total Bases

3+ bases

8%

Total Bases

4+ bases

5%

RBIs

1+ RBI

13%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

3%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 39% against 54%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Blake Snell

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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