BETFLYAISIGN IN

AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

LAA vs SEA

Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners

Saturday, September 26, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the LAA @ SEA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

LOS ANGELESLAA
0·0
SEATTLESEA
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

LAA DUGOUTSEA DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Zach Neto (R) vs HP

FB92.9
CV77
SL82.8
CH87.1

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Zach Neto in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · ZACH NETO

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

SEA to win

74%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

SEA -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL SEA

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

SEA wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYZach Neto at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 76 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Los Angeles A wins

69%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGESEA
LINEUP EDGESEA

LAA STARTER

Yusei Kikuchi

SHAKY
4.5
PROJECTED Ks
—
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 41% · 19% whiffSlider · 25% · 26% whiffSplit-Finger · 17% · 32% whiff

SEA STARTER

Logan Gilbert

AVERAGE
7.0
PROJECTED Ks
—
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 40% · 23% whiffSlider · 25% · 37% whiffSplit-Finger · 15% · 42% whiff

Logan Gilbert projects 7.0 Ks vs Yusei Kikuchi projects 4.5 Ks

LAA LINEUP

  1. 1Zach Neto (R)hit 64% · HR 21%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Mike Trout (R)hit 63% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Jose Siri (R)hit 52% · HR 16%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Vaughn Grissom (R)hit 56% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Denzer Guzman (R)hit 49% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Christian Moore (R)hit 47% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    47%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    16%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    21%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Wade Meckler (L)hit 55% · HR 7%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    23%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Bryce Teodosio (R)hit 38% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    38%

    1+ HIT

    8%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    16%

    2+ BASES

    8%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    16%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    22%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Tyler Heineman (S)hit 44% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    44%

    1+ HIT

    10%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    17%

    2+ BASES

    8%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    15%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    23%

    SCORES A RUN

SEA LINEUP

  1. 1J.P. Crawford (L)hit 60% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Randy Arozarena (R)hit 65% · HR 17%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Dominic Canzone (L)hit 70% · HR 21%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Cal Raleigh (S)hit 54% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Josh Naylor (L)hit 60% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Cole Young (L)hit 58% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Michael Arroyo (R)hit 55% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Lazaro Montes (L)hit 49% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Leo Rivashit 46% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    19%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

UPGRADE TO EDGE — $10/mo

III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

LAA SEA

Game Markets

LAA @ SEA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SEA to win

64%

1st 5 Innings

SEA F5

55%

Game Total

Over 8.5

41%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

46%

Run Line

SEA -1.5

46%

Team Total

LAA Over 4.5

29%

Team Total

SEA Over 4.5

45%

THE READ

SEA projects to outscore LAA by 1.21 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: LAA 3.40, SEA 4.61
  • Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) vs Logan Gilbert (SEA)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
YK

Yusei Kikuchi

LAA SP · vs. SEA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

59%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

26%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

54%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

41%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
  • 47% to reach 5+ against SEA
LG

Logan Gilbert

SEA SP · vs. LAA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

86%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

74%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

57%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

40%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

26%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

85%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

52%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

45%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

31%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.0 strikeouts
  • 86% to reach 5+ against LAA
DC

Dominic Canzone

SEA · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 20% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Yusei Kikuchi
ZN

Zach Neto

LAA · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 25% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Logan Gilbert
MT

Mike Trout

LAA · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Logan Gilbert
CR

Cal Raleigh

SEA · bats S · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats S
  • Facing Yusei Kikuchi
RA

Randy Arozarena

SEA · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Yusei Kikuchi
JS

Jose Siri

LAA · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Logan Gilbert
JN

Josh Naylor

SEA · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 23% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Yusei Kikuchi
JC

J.P. Crawford

SEA · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 22% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Yusei Kikuchi
MA

Michael Arroyo

SEA · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 11% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Yusei Kikuchi
CY

Cole Young

SEA · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Yusei Kikuchi
VG

Vaughn Grissom

LAA · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Logan Gilbert
WM

Wade Meckler

LAA · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Logan Gilbert
DG

Denzer Guzman

LAA · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 11% against 11%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Logan Gilbert
LM

Lazaro Montes

SEA · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 23% against 26%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Yusei Kikuchi
CM

Christian Moore

LAA · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

16%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 57%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Logan Gilbert
LR

Leo Rivas

SEA · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

21%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 57%.

  • Batting 9
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Yusei Kikuchi
TH

Tyler Heineman

LAA · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

46%

Hits

2+ hits

10%

Total Bases

2+ bases

19%

Total Bases

3+ bases

9%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

15%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 46% against 57%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Logan Gilbert
BT

Bryce Teodosio

LAA · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

40%

Hits

2+ hits

8%

Total Bases

2+ bases

18%

Total Bases

3+ bases

9%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

16%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 40% against 57%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Logan Gilbert

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.