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HOUSTONHOU
79-81 · +1 AL WEST · L1 · 4-6 L10
@SAT 9:40 PM ETATH HOME PARK
64-96 · +4 AL WEST · W1 · 3-7 L10
ATH
Weather
—
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Hayden Wesneski
RHP · HOUPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
3.50
IP
54.0
K/9
6.8
BB/9
3.2
WHIP
1.15
L5 STARTS2.76 ERA · 17.9% K · 8.5% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

Jack Perkins
RHP · ATHPROBABLE
STUFF+101
ERA
5.90
IP
116.0
K/9
10.2
BB/9
3.7
WHIP
1.45
L5 STARTS3.21 ERA · 25% K · 9.3% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
37%
31%
17%
9%
4-Seam FastballSweeperChangeupCutterSinker
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETAstros 51%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

HOU ATH

Game Markets

HOU @ ATH · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

HOU to win

51%

1st 5 Innings

ATH F5

43%

Game Total

Over 8.5

40%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

44%

Run Line

ATH -1.5

32%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

ATH Over 4.5

35%

THE READ

HOU projects to outscore ATH by 0.26 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: HOU 4.08, ATH 3.82
  • Hayden Wesneski (HOU) vs Jack Perkins (ATH)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
HW

Hayden Wesneski

HOU SP · vs. ATH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

51%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

23%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

48%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

35%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
  • 31% to reach 5+ against ATH
JP

Jack Perkins

ATH SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

64%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

11%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

54%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

25%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

41%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

28%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.5 strikeouts
  • 64% to reach 5+ against HOU

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

HAYDEN WESNESKI SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATH hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%18.7%OPS-against.658
vs Left-handedK%18.8%OPS-against.636
ATH vs RHP (team)OPS.723K%21.6%

JACK PERKINS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how HOU hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%22.8%OPS-against.782
vs Left-handedK%27.2%OPS-against.805
HOU vs RHP (team)OPS.734K%22.1%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

ATH BATTERS vs HAYDEN WESNESKI

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

HOU BATTERS vs JACK PERKINS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
HOU 1·ATH 1
4-game set · gm 3 of 4
2026 SEASON
HOU 5·ATH 6
11 played · 8 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
90%HOU
HOU 129 · ATH 14 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-26ATH 6-5 · One-run game
2026-09-25HOU 7-5
2026-08-23ATH 7-6 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

HOU OFFENSE

.324L15 team wOBA
+8 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

ATH OFFENSE

.304L15 team wOBA
-12 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT

Park factors unavailable.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH

Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO