AI MODEL READ
LEAGUE AVGCOL vs CWS
Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Sox
Saturday, September 26, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the COL @ CWS simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
League Avg (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
League Avg in this spot
BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
CWS to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
CWS -1.5
TEAM TOTAL CWS
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
CWS wins F5
event 1 / 85 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
Chicago WS wins
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
COL STARTER
Jose Quintana
SHAKY- 2.7
- PROJECTED Ks
- 87
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.
CWS STARTER
Davis Martin
SHAKY- 3.6
- PROJECTED Ks
- 85
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Davis Martin grades poor (Pitching+ 85) vs Jose Quintana grades poor (Pitching+ 87)
III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
Game Markets
COL @ CWS · full-game reads
Moneyline
CWS to win
59%
1st 5 Innings
CWS F5
53%
Game Total
Over 8.5
65%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
66%
Run Line
CWS -1.5
44%
Team Total
COL Over 4.5
50%
Team Total
CWS Over 4.5
60%
THE READ
CWS projects to outscore COL by 0.82 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: COL 4.99, CWS 5.81
- Jose Quintana (COL) vs Davis Martin (CWS)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Jose Quintana
COL SP · vs. CWS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
58%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
18%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
70%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
58%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 2.7 strikeouts
- 13% to reach 5+ against CWS
Davis Martin
CWS SP · vs. COL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
29%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
43%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
2%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
56%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
42%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.6 strikeouts
- 29% to reach 5+ against COL
BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.