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CLEVELANDCLE
84-76 · +1 AL CENTRAL · W2 · 8-2 L10
@SAT 7:10 PM ETKC HOME PARK
68-92 · +5 AL CENTRAL · L2 · 2-8 L10
KANSAS CITYKC
Weather
74°F · 3mph in from CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Tanner Bibee
RHP · CLEPROBABLE
STUFF+105
ERA
4.35
IP
182.0
K/9
7.0
BB/9
2.7
WHIP
1.22
L5 STARTS6.98 ERA · 16.1% K · 8.5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
25%
23%
22%
16%
10%
CutterSinker4-Seam FastballChangeupCurveballSweeper
Michael Wacha
RHP · KCPROBABLE
STUFF+98
ERA
3.33
IP
194.1
K/9
7.1
BB/9
2.5
WHIP
1.11
L5 STARTS2.60 ERA · 21.9% K · 8.6% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
27%
23%
16%
15%
11%
9%
4-Seam FastballChangeupCutterSinkerCurveballSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Tanner Bibee · Over 14.5 15+ Outs

elite efficiency, gets the bulk innings

-180 DraftKings64% book82% +18pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETGuardians 52%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

CLE KC

Game Markets

CLE @ KC · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

52%

1st 5 Innings

KC F5

42%

Game Total

Over 8.5

51%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

55%

Run Line

KC -1.5

32%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

46%

Team Total

KC Over 4.5

41%

THE READ

CLE projects to outscore KC by 0.45 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CLE 4.68, KC 4.23
  • Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs Michael Wacha (KC)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
TB

Tanner Bibee

CLE SP · vs. KC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

49%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

15%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

53%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

40%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.4 strikeouts
  • 25% to reach 5+ against KC
MW

Michael Wacha

KC SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

83%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

40%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

67%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

54%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
  • 33% to reach 5+ against CLE

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

TANNER BIBEE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how KC hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%17.1%OPS-against.675
vs Left-handedK%20.0%OPS-against.751
KC vs RHP (team)OPS.726K%20.5%

MICHAEL WACHA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CLE hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%17.6%OPS-against.788
vs Left-handedK%21.1%OPS-against.615
CLE vs RHP (team)OPS.701K%20.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

KC BATTERS vs TANNER BIBEE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

CLE BATTERS vs MICHAEL WACHA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
CLE 1·KC 0
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
CLE 8·KC 5
13 played · 6 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
57%CLE
CLE 185 · KC 142 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-25CLE 12-9 · Slugfest
2026-08-30CLE 11-1 · Blowout
2026-08-29KC 8-3
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
CLE53¢ · 53%
KC50¢ · 50%
Total 8.5
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
CLE -1.5— · —
KC +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→8.5→8→8.5→8→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

CLE OFFENSE

.325L15 team wOBA
+9 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

KC OFFENSE

.304L15 team wOBA
-12 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT74° · 3mph in from CF
KAUFFMAN STADIUM
94HR
HR factor0.94 · below avg
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor1.08 · +

Big OF — triples up, HR down.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
74°F
Wind3 mph in from CF
Humidity77%
Rain12%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO