BETFLYAISIGN IN
CINCINNATICIN
74-86 · +5 NL CENTRAL · L1 · 4-6 L10
@SAT 3:07 PM ETTOR HOME PARK
78-82 · +5 AL EAST · W1 · 3-7 L10
TORONTOTOR
Weather
72°F · 5mph out to CF
Home plate ump
Paul Clemons K-0.3%
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Rhett Lowder
RHP · CINPROBABLE
STUFF+86
ERA
6.01
IP
127.1
K/9
7.1
BB/9
3.8
WHIP
1.55
L5 STARTS10.75 ERA · 17.5% K · 10.7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
30%
27%
23%
21%
SinkerSlider4-Seam FastballChangeup
Trey Yesavage
RHP · TORPROBABLE
STUFF+109
ERA
3.67
IP
95.2
K/9
8.8
BB/9
4.3
WHIP
1.13
L5 STARTS3.56 ERA · 30.5% K · 8.5% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
46%
30%
24%
4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS2 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Trey Yesavage · Over 3.5 4+ Ks

strikeout machine on the bump

-121 DraftKings55% book77% +23pp

Rhett Lowder · Over 3.5 4+ Ks

punch-out artist with the right matchup

+128 BetOnline.44% book65% +21pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBlue Jays 54%

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

CIN TOR

Game Markets

CIN @ TOR · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TOR to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

TOR F5

49%

Game Total

Over 8.5

48%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

53%

Run Line

TOR -1.5

37%

Team Total

CIN Over 4.5

40%

Team Total

TOR Over 4.5

44%

THE READ

TOR projects to outscore CIN by 0.27 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CIN 4.15, TOR 4.42
  • Rhett Lowder (CIN) vs Trey Yesavage (TOR)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
RL

Rhett Lowder

CIN SP · vs. TOR

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

20%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

2%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

50%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

37%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.1 strikeouts
  • 6% to reach 5+ against TOR
TY

Trey Yesavage

TOR SP · vs. CIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

67%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

48%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

9%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

29%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

6%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

27%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

16%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.5 strikeouts
  • 67% to reach 5+ against CIN
KO

Kazuma Okamoto

TOR · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Rhett Lowder
ES

Eugenio Suárez

CIN · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Trey Yesavage
EC

Elly De La Cruz

CIN · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Trey Yesavage
VJ

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

TOR · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Rhett Lowder
SS

Sal Stewart

CIN · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Trey Yesavage
BB

Brett Bateman

TOR · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Rhett Lowder
NL

Nathan Lukes

TOR · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Rhett Lowder
AK

Alejandro Kirk

TOR · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Rhett Lowder
JB

JJ Bleday

CIN · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Trey Yesavage
TS

Tyler Stephenson

CIN · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Trey Yesavage
EC

Ernie Clement

TOR · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Rhett Lowder
AG

Andrés Giménez

TOR · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Rhett Lowder
SK

Sean Keys

TOR · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Rhett Lowder
JS

Josh Smith

TOR · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Rhett Lowder
HR

Héctor Rodríguez

CIN · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 12% against 14%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Trey Yesavage
JB

Juan Brito

CIN · bats S · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 62%.

  • Batting 8 · bats S
  • Facing Trey Yesavage
CJ

Carlos Jorge

CIN · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 62%.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Trey Yesavage
MM

Matt McLain

CIN · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

45%

Hits

2+ hits

10%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 10% against 14%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Trey Yesavage
— SPLITS THAT MATTER

RHETT LOWDER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TOR hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%15.8%OPS-against.756
vs Left-handedK%18.3%OPS-against.843
TOR vs RHP (team)OPS.707K%18.7%

TREY YESAVAGE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CIN hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%27.1%OPS-against.631
vs Left-handedK%21.5%OPS-against.623
CIN vs RHP (team)OPS.693K%25.6%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

TOR BATTERS vs RHETT LOWDER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

CIN BATTERS vs TREY YESAVAGE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
CIN 0·TOR 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
CIN 0·TOR 1
1 played · 18 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
62%TOR
CIN 9 · TOR 15 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-25TOR 6-5 · One-run game
2025-09-03TOR 13-9 · Slugfest
2025-09-02TOR 12-9 · Slugfest
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
CIN42¢ · 42%
TOR62¢ · 62%
Total 8.5
Over53¢ · 53%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
CIN -1.5— · —
TOR +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→8→8.5→8→8.5→7.5→8→7.5→8→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

CIN OFFENSE

.268L15 team wOBA
-48 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

TOR OFFENSE

.307L15 team wOBA
-9 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT72° · 5mph out to CF
ROGERS CENTRE
106HR
HR factor1.06 · +
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Slight HR boost.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
72°F
Wind5 mph out to CF
Humidity53%
Rain0%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE
CLEMONS
Called K rate-0.3% vs avg
Runs per 9—
Games this yr99

Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

BLUE JAYS 54%

Mean score sim 4.2–4.4 · projected total 8.6 runs · built on locked lineups

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