BALTIMOREBAL
79-82 · +4 AL EAST · L1 · 6-4 L10
@2026-09-26NYY HOME PARK
93-68 · +2 AL EAST · W1 · 5-5 L10
NEW YORKNYY
Weather
58°F · 14mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETYankees 54%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

BAL NYY

Game Markets

BAL @ NYY · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYY to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

NYY F5

45%

Game Total

Over 8.5

51%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

55%

Run Line

NYY -1.5

38%

Team Total

BAL Over 4.5

42%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

46%

THE READ

NYY projects to outscore BAL by 0.26 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: BAL 4.37, NYY 4.63
  • Shane Baz (BAL) vs Elmer Rodríguez (NYY)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
SB

Shane Baz

BAL SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

86%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

49%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

68%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

55%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
  • 39% to reach 5+ against NYY
ER

Elmer Rodríguez

NYY SP · vs. BAL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

49%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

39%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

7%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

42%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

29%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
  • 49% to reach 5+ against BAL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

NYY vs LHP (team)OPS.733K%24.4%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BAL hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

BAL vs RHP (team)OPS.715K%24.3%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

NYY BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

BAL BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
BAL 1·NYY 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
BAL 5·NYY 11
16 played · 3 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
56%NYY
BAL 156 · NYY 196 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-25NYY 6-3
2026-09-25BAL 10-2 · Blowout
2026-08-20NYY 6-1
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
BAL45¢ · 45%
NYY58¢ · 58%
Total 9
Over48¢ · 48%
Under57¢ · 57%
Run line ±1.5
BAL -1.5— · —
NYY +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

BAL OFFENSE

.309L15 team wOBA
-7 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

NYY OFFENSE

.308L15 team wOBA
-8 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT58° · 14mph out to RF
YANKEE STADIUM
112HR
HR factor1.12 · +
Runs factor1.04 · neutral
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Short porch — LH HR heaven.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
58°F
Wind14 mph out to RF
Humidity82%
Rain50%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

YANKEES 54%

Mean score sim 4.4–4.6 · projected total 9.0 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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