BETFLYAISIGN IN
ATLANTAATL
93-67 · +1 NL EAST · L2 · 5-5 L10
@SAT 4:10 PM ETMIA HOME PARK
79-81 · +3 NL EAST · W1 · 5-5 L10
MIAMIMIA
Weather
84°F · 6mph in from CF
Home plate ump
Clint Vondrak K-0.3%
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Brent Suter
LHP · ATLPROBABLE
STUFF+100
ERA
3.48
IP
88.0
K/9
7.7
BB/9
2.6
WHIP
1.25
L5 STARTS1.22 ERA · 21.9% K · 6.3% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
31%
30%
24%
16%
ChangeupSinker4-Seam FastballSlider
Jack Ralston
RHP · MIAPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
4.50
IP
16.0
K/9
9.6
BB/9
4.5
WHIP
1.25
L5 STARTS6.92 ERA · 30.8% K · 11.5% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS3 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · GAME MARKETS

Under 6.5 (F5) · f5_total

under edge from the run-rate model in F5

— Kalshi70% book81% +11pp

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Jakob Marsee · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases

platoon split + park combine for TB ceiling

-179 Caesars64% book71% +7pp

Jakob Marsee · Under 0.5 <1 Hits

lineup spot + form pushes Over

+155 BetOnline.39% book45% +5pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBraves 60%

97 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 12

ATL MIA

Game Markets

ATL @ MIA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

ATL to win

60%

1st 5 Innings

MIA F5

38%

Game Total

Over 8.5

42%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

48%

Run Line

MIA -1.5

25%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

46%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

31%

THE READ

ATL projects to outscore MIA by 1.13 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: ATL 4.62, MIA 3.49
  • Brent Suter (ATL) vs Jack Ralston (MIA)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
BS

Brent Suter

ATL SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

26%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

0%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

40%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

25%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
  • 27% to reach 5+ against MIA
JR

Jack Ralston

MIA SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

57%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

20%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

52%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

38%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
  • 32% to reach 5+ against ATL
HH

Heriberto Hernández

MIA · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Brent Suter
OL

Otto Lopez

MIA · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Brent Suter
GC

Griffin Conine

MIA · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Brent Suter
JS

Javier Sanoja

MIA · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Brent Suter
ER

Esteury Ruiz

MIA · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 51%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Brent Suter
AR

Agustín Ramírez

MIA · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Brent Suter
JM

Jakob Marsee

MIA · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Brent Suter
DS

Deyvison De Los Santos

MIA · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 58%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Brent Suter
JS

Jared Serna

MIA · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 58%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Brent Suter
— SPLITS THAT MATTER

BRENT SUTER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%20.6%OPS-against.656
vs Left-handedK%21.0%OPS-against.828
MIA vs RHP (team)OPS.742K%21.4%

JACK RALSTON SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%31.8%OPS-against.104
vs Left-handedK%21.3%OPS-against.636
ATL vs LHP (team)OPS.695K%21.4%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

MIA BATTERS vs BRENT SUTER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

ATL BATTERS vs JACK RALSTON

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
ATL 0·MIA 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
ATL 8·MIA 3
11 played · 8 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
68%ATL
ATL 207 · MIA 96 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-25MIA 3-0 · Pitchers duel
2026-08-06ATL 11-3 · Blowout
2026-08-05ATL 4-1
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
ATL54¢ · 54%
MIA50¢ · 50%
Total 8.5
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
ATL -1.5— · —
MIA +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

ATL OFFENSE

.303L15 team wOBA
-13 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

MIA OFFENSE

.320L15 team wOBA
+4 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT84° · 6mph in from CF
LOANDEPOT PARK
94HR
HR factor0.94 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Cavernous OF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
84°F
Wind6 mph in from CF
Humidity62%
Rain5%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE
VONDRAK
Called K rate-0.3% vs avg
Runs per 9—
Games this yr137

Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

BRAVES 60%

Mean score sim 4.6–3.5 · projected total 8.1 runs · partial lineups — will refresh

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