BETFLYAISIGN IN
ARIZONAARI
—
@2026-09-26SD HOME PARK
89-71 · +2 NL WEST · L1 · 7-3 L10
SAN DIEGOSD
Weather
80°F · 7mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS3 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Gabriel Moreno · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs

L30 RBI pace + matchup

+244 DraftKings29% book56% +27pp

Gabriel Moreno · Over 0.5 1+ Runs

reaches base often, gets pushed across

+145 BetMGM41% book53% +12pp

Walker Buehler · Over 3.5 4+ Ks

elite swing-and-miss stuff

-121 DraftKings55% book66% +11pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETDiamondbacks 56%

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

ARI SD

Game Markets

ARI @ SD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

ARI to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

SD F5

38%

Game Total

Over 8.5

57%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

57%

Run Line

SD -1.5

29%

Team Total

ARI Over 4.5

53%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

44%

THE READ

ARI projects to outscore SD by 0.77 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: ARI 5.22, SD 4.45
  • Taylor Clarke (ARI) vs Walker Buehler (SD)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
TC

Taylor Clarke

ARI SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

42%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

95%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

83%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

72%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
  • 42% to reach 5+ against SD
WB

Walker Buehler

SD SP · vs. ARI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

33%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

4%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

50%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

35%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.5 strikeouts
  • 10% to reach 5+ against ARI
CC

Corbin Carroll

ARI · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 23% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Walker Buehler
FJ

Fernando Tatis Jr.

SD · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

79%

Hits

2+ hits

41%

Total Bases

2+ bases

57%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 41% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Taylor Clarke
NA

Nolan Arenado

ARI · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Walker Buehler
JM

Jackson Merrill

SD · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Taylor Clarke
GM

Gabriel Moreno

ARI · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Walker Buehler
MM

Manny Machado

SD · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Taylor Clarke
KM

Ketel Marte

ARI · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 3+ bases — 32% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Facing Walker Buehler
TF

Ty France

SD · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Taylor Clarke
JM

James McCann

ARI · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Walker Buehler
LN

Lars Nootbaar

ARI · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Walker Buehler
GS

Gavin Sheets

SD · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Taylor Clarke
DH

Dustin Harris

SD · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Taylor Clarke
GP

Geraldo Perdomo

ARI · bats S · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 4 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Walker Buehler
PS

Pavin Smith

ARI · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 30% against 32%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Walker Buehler
XB

Xander Bogaerts

SD · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 65%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Taylor Clarke
TT

Tim Tawa

ARI · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 13% against 14%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Walker Buehler
ES

Ethan Salas

SD · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 65%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Taylor Clarke
JC

Jake Cronenworth

SD · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 65%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Taylor Clarke
— SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

SD vs LHP (team)OPS.704K%21.7%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ARI hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

ARI vs RHP (team)OPS.697K%20.0%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

SD BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

ARI BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
ARI 0·SD 0
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
ARI 0·SD 5
13 played · 6 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
100%SD
ARI 0 · SD 161 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-26AZ 11-4 · Blowout
2026-08-07SD 5-1
2026-08-06AZ 10-4 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
ARI48¢ · 48%
SD56¢ · 56%
Total 7.5
Over53¢ · 53%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
ARI -1.5— · —
SD +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

ARI OFFENSE

.350L15 team wOBA
+34 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6

SD OFFENSE

.356L15 team wOBA
+40 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6
— ENVIRONMENT80° · 7mph out to RF
PETCO PARK
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Marine layer suppresses HR.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
80°F
Wind7 mph out to RF
Humidity74%
Rain0%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

DIAMONDBACKS 56%

Mean score sim 5.2–4.5 · projected total 9.7 runs · built on locked lineups

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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