MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Freddy Peralta · Over 4.5 5+ Ks
high-K profile + cooperative opp
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
TB @ PHI · full-game reads
Moneyline
PHI to win
58%
1st 5 Innings
PHI F5
49%
Game Total
Over 8.5
33%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
37%
Run Line
PHI -1.5
38%
Team Total
TB Over 4.5
28%
Team Total
PHI Over 4.5
35%
THE READ
PHI projects to outscore TB by 0.57 runs across 5,000 trials.
TB SP · vs. PHI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
56%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
36%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
20%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
79%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
11%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
50%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
35%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.9 Ks.
PHI SP · vs. TB
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
95%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
87%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
76%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
61%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
44%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
100%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
97%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
59%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
44%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.2 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TB hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
HR-friendly.
Wind in from CF · HR headwind.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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