BETFLYAISIGN IN
ST. LOUISSTL
77-82 · +4 NL CENTRAL · L1 · 4-6 L10
@FRI 7:40 PM ETMIL HOME PARK
100-59 · +1 NL CENTRAL · W2 · 7-3 L10
MILWAUKEEMIL
Weather
63°F · 4mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Michael McGreevy
RHP · STLPROBABLE
STUFF+81
ERA
3.84
IP
164.0
K/9
6.2
BB/9
2.5
WHIP
1.25
L5 STARTS5.50 ERA · 15.1% K · 8.4% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
26%
21%
17%
11%
11%
10%
4-Seam FastballChangeupSinkerCutterCurveballSweeperSlider
Robert Gasser
LHP · MILPROBABLE
STUFF+104
ERA
4.01
IP
103.1
K/9
8.2
BB/9
3.0
WHIP
1.24
L5 STARTS1.77 ERA · 20.2% K · 10.1% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
28%
26%
23%
16%
SweeperSinker4-Seam FastballCutterChangeup
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Michael McGreevy · Over 3.5 4+ Ks

K-monster arsenal

-115 FanDuel53% book67% +13pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBrewers 62%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

STL MIL

Game Markets

STL @ MIL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIL to win

62%

1st 5 Innings

MIL F5

51%

Game Total

Over 8.5

54%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

59%

Run Line

MIL -1.5

44%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

40%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

53%

THE READ

MIL projects to outscore STL by 0.93 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: STL 4.22, MIL 5.15
  • Michael McGreevy (STL) vs Robert Gasser (MIL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
MM

Michael McGreevy

STL SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

68%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

26%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

69%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

56%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.9 strikeouts
  • 15% to reach 5+ against MIL
RG

Robert Gasser

MIL SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

57%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

18%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

52%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

39%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
  • 32% to reach 5+ against STL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

MICHAEL MCGREEVY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIL hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%20.1%OPS-against.669
vs Left-handedK%14.7%OPS-against.759
MIL vs LHP (team)OPS.707K%21.1%

ROBERT GASSER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%20.1%OPS-against.782
vs Left-handedK%23.9%OPS-against.574
STL vs RHP (team)OPS.686K%21.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

MIL BATTERS vs MICHAEL MCGREEVY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

STL BATTERS vs ROBERT GASSER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
STL 0·MIL 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
STL 3·MIL 8
11 played · 8 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
53%STL
STL 153 · MIL 137 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-07-09MIL 8-4
2026-07-08STL 5-1
2026-07-07MIL 10-2 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
STL40¢ · 40%
MIL64¢ · 64%
Total 8
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
STL -1.5— · —
MIL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→7.5→8→7.5→8→8.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

STL OFFENSE

.265L15 team wOBA
-51 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

MIL OFFENSE

.325L15 team wOBA
+9 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT63° · 4mph out to LF
AMERICAN FAMILY FIELD
108HR
HR factor1.08 · +
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

HR-friendly with roof closed.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
63°F
Wind4 mph out to LF
Humidity58%
Rain0%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO