Not cataloged
MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Andrew Alvarez · Over 4.5 5+ Ks
elite swing-and-miss stuff
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
NYM @ WSH · full-game reads
Moneyline
NYM to win
50%
1st 5 Innings
WSH F5
43%
Game Total
Over 8.5
53%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
53%
Run Line
WSH -1.5
33%
Team Total
NYM Over 4.5
48%
Team Total
WSH Over 4.5
45%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 9.31 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
NYM SP · vs. WSH
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
67%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
49%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
32%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
19%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
9%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
83%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
47%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
65%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
50%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.6 Ks.
WSH SP · vs. NYM
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
37%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
20%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
33%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
4%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
44%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
31%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how WSH hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Neutral.
Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.
Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.
Mean score sim 4.8–4.5 · projected total 9.3 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post
That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.
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