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CLEVELANDCLE
83-76 · +1 AL CENTRAL · W1 · 8-2 L10
@FRI 7:40 PM ETKC HOME PARK
68-91 · +5 AL CENTRAL · L1 · 2-8 L10
KANSAS CITYKC
Weather
67°F · 6mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Gavin Williams
RHP · CLEPROBABLE
STUFF+104
ERA
3.63
IP
181.0
K/9
12.1
BB/9
2.8
WHIP
1.08
L5 STARTS3.10 ERA · 40.2% K · 8.4% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
26%
23%
22%
20%
10%
SweeperCurveball4-Seam FastballSinkerCutter
Noah Cameron
LHP · KCPROBABLE
STUFF+96
ERA
3.92
IP
172.1
K/9
8.1
BB/9
2.8
WHIP
1.20
L5 STARTS3.41 ERA · 22.9% K · 6.8% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
29%
21%
20%
17%
10%
4-Seam FastballChangeupCutterCurveballSliderSinker
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS2 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Gavin Williams · Over 6.5 7+ Ks

elite swing-and-miss stuff

-125 Fanatics56% book71% +15pp

Noah Cameron · Over 4.5 5+ Ks

punch-out artist with the right matchup

+130 DraftKings43% book58% +15pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETGuardians 59%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

CLE KC

Game Markets

CLE @ KC · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

59%

1st 5 Innings

KC F5

30%

Game Total

Over 8.5

36%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

39%

Run Line

KC -1.5

24%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

41%

Team Total

KC Over 4.5

26%

THE READ

CLE projects to outscore KC by 1.08 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CLE 4.29, KC 3.21
  • Gavin Williams (CLE) vs Noah Cameron (KC)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
GW

Gavin Williams

CLE SP · vs. KC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

92%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

84%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

71%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

55%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

39%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

64%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

18%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

29%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

17%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.8 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.8 strikeouts
  • 92% to reach 5+ against KC
NC

Noah Cameron

KC SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

51%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

76%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

9%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

54%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

39%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
  • 51% to reach 5+ against CLE

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

GAVIN WILLIAMS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how KC hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%30.8%OPS-against.725
vs Left-handedK%35.3%OPS-against.601
KC vs LHP (team)OPS.696K%21.9%

NOAH CAMERON SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CLE hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%21.2%OPS-against.664
vs Left-handedK%22.7%OPS-against.746
CLE vs RHP (team)OPS.700K%20.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

KC BATTERS vs GAVIN WILLIAMS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

CLE BATTERS vs NOAH CAMERON

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
CLE 0·KC 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
CLE 7·KC 5
12 played · 7 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
56%CLE
CLE 184 · KC 142 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-30CLE 11-1 · Blowout
2026-08-29KC 8-3
2026-08-28KC 3-0 · Pitchers duel
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
CLE58¢ · 58%
KC45¢ · 45%
Total 8
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
CLE -1.5— · —
KC +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→7.5→8→7.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

CLE OFFENSE

.315L15 team wOBA
-1 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

KC OFFENSE

.293L15 team wOBA
-23 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT67° · 6mph out to LF
KAUFFMAN STADIUM
94HR
HR factor0.94 · below avg
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor1.08 · +

Big OF — triples up, HR down.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
67°F
Wind6 mph out to LF
Humidity76%
Rain8%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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