AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDCIN vs TOR
Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays
Friday, September 25, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the CIN @ TOR simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
Carlos Jorge (L) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
Carlos Jorge in this spot
BATTER PROPS · CARLOS JORGE
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
TOR to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
TOR -1.5
TEAM TOTAL TOR
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
TOR wins F5
event 1 / 80 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
CIN STARTER
Rhett Lowder
SHAKY- 2.6
- PROJECTED Ks
- 93
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
TOR STARTER
Trey Yesavage
AVERAGE- 4.9
- PROJECTED Ks
- 97
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Trey Yesavage grades avg (Pitching+ 97) vs Rhett Lowder grades poor (Pitching+ 93)
CIN LINEUP
1Carlos Jorge (L)hit 53% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
18%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
2Elly De La Cruz (S)hit 66% · HR 22%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
22%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
24%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
46%
SCORES A RUN
3Sal Stewart (R)hit 63% · HR 21%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
21%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
4JJ Bleday (L)hit 52% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
5Eugenio Suárez (R)hit 52% · HR 20%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
6Héctor Rodríguez (L)hit 52% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
7Juan Brito (S)hit 53% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
24%
SCORES A RUN
8Jose Trevino (R)hit 46% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
46%
1+ HIT
12%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
21%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
19%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
23%
SCORES A RUN
9Oswaldo Cabrera (S)hit 47% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
47%
1+ HIT
12%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
23%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
18%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
TOR LINEUP
1Charles McAdoo (R)hit 67% · HR 13%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
47%
SCORES A RUN
2Alejandro Kirk (R)hit 70% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
33%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
47%
SCORES A RUN
3Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)hit 74% · HR 18%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
74%
1+ HIT
38%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
51%
2+ BASES
33%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
38%
RBI
17%
2+ RBIs
49%
SCORES A RUN
4George Springer (R)hit 68% · HR 19%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
39%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
5Kazuma Okamoto (R)hit 64% · HR 25%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
25%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
31%
3+ BASES
26%
4+ BASES
41%
RBI
21%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
6Nathan Lukes (L)hit 64% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
7Davis Schneider (R)hit 52% · HR 18%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
8Ernie Clement (R)hit 60% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
9Myles Straw (R)hit 56% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
EDGE TIER · UNLOCK
Every bat, graded by the sim.
Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
UPGRADE TO EDGE — $10/moII · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
Game Markets
CIN @ TOR · full-game reads
Moneyline
TOR to win
64%
1st 5 Innings
TOR F5
57%
Game Total
Over 8.5
53%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
57%
Run Line
TOR -1.5
47%
Team Total
CIN Over 4.5
36%
Team Total
TOR Over 4.5
54%
THE READ
TOR projects to outscore CIN by 1.29 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: CIN 3.98, TOR 5.26
- Rhett Lowder (CIN) vs Trey Yesavage (TOR)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Rhett Lowder
CIN SP · vs. TOR
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
24%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
3%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
54%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
41%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 2.6 strikeouts
- 11% to reach 5+ against TOR
Trey Yesavage
TOR SP · vs. CIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
55%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
37%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
21%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
5%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
30%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
6%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
30%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
19%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.9 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.9 strikeouts
- 55% to reach 5+ against CIN
BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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